Despite the market sentiment still being 'greedy', Ethereum (ETH) has faced a decline of about 4%, with the current trading price at $3,354.5. As the 'Christmas rebound' turns into a mirage, investors cannot help but wonder: Why has Ethereum performed so weakly today?
ETH's Price Trap
From a technical analysis perspective, Ethereum has faced repeated setbacks at the key resistance level of $3,524. On the four-hour chart, both the 50-period and 20-period moving averages have fallen, and the 'death cross' that appeared on December 23 has become a trigger for further price declines. Technical signals clearly indicate that the market has entered a short-term bearish mode.
The decline in trading activity adds insult to injury—Ethereum's trading volume has decreased by 10.06%, indicating that traders are either waiting or withdrawing. Although open positions have surged to about $1 billion, the short-to-long ratio stands at 0.846, with 54.17% of open futures positions being short, suggesting a pessimistic attitude towards Ethereum's short-term performance.
Declining Exchange Reserves: A Hidden Positive Signal?
Despite the short-term bearish signals, the continuous decline of Ethereum's exchange reserves is noteworthy. According to CryptoQuant data, exchanges currently hold only 19.05 million ETH, which is an important indicator—indicating that more investors are transferring assets to cold wallets, showing their confidence in Ethereum's long-term potential. This behavior may also suggest that there is room for price increases in the future.
In addition, the inflow of ETF funds also provides a glimmer of hope. On December 24, the Ethereum ETFs from BlackRock, Bitwise, and Fidelity attracted inflows of $43.9 million, $6.19 million, and $3.45 million respectively. Although the amounts are moderate, there are no significant outflows, indicating that institutional investors are still 'gradually positioning', which may be a positive signal for Ethereum's future.
Future Outlook: Ready to Launch or Continue Adjustment?
The decline in Ethereum may just be a short-term adjustment, especially against the backdrop of current bearish market sentiment. Although the anticipated 'Christmas rebound' did not occur, investors should not overlook the bigger picture. The decline in exchange reserves and the inflow of ETF funds indicate that long-term bullish investors are seizing the opportunity of the current price adjustment to accumulate positions gradually.
However, in the short term, the pressure of technical resistance levels and the sluggish market sentiment may cause Ethereum to continue fluctuating between $3,200 and $3,500. Only when Ethereum successfully breaks through $3,524 and firmly establishes itself above this key resistance level might market sentiment experience a reversal.
Opportunities are often hidden in the fog
The market always catches emotional investors off guard. Ethereum's decline today is not due to a single reason, but rather the result of a resonance between short-term technical factors and sentiment. However, history shows that when market sentiment is overly pessimistic, it often breeds new opportunities.
Smart investors know that victories and defeats are never determined by a single day's fluctuations, but rather by how well they see through the surface ups and downs and accurately grasp the pulse of trends. Perhaps when many people ask 'Why is Ethereum down?', the real question is: Are you prepared for the next rise?
#BTC上攻11万？ #2025有哪些关键叙事？ #2025加密趋势预测 #“圣诞老人行情”再现 #ETH $BTC $ETH $SOL
