Today is December 26, good afternoon everyone. Bitcoin skyrocketed this morning, reaching a high of $99,963, coming close to the $100,000 mark, and has currently slightly retreated to around $95,600.
In the short term, Bitcoin may fluctuate between $94,000 and $100,000. Although it has broken through the declining channel, institutions seem unwilling to increase their holdings during the Christmas period, so the downside risk is still greater than the upside opportunity. The market may suddenly experience a 'spike down,' so we should be cautious and not blindly chase highs. Remember, missing out is always better than getting stuck!
Currently, the cryptocurrency market is preparing for a key phase of increasing volatility. On December 27, there will be up to $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options expiring, which is an important event that may reshape short-term price trends and affect investment strategies. This event is expected to spur increased trading activity, and with Americans on holiday and US stock markets closed, the recent market rebound also seems to lack supply and demand levels.
Historic large-scale options expiration:
$14 billion Bitcoin options are about to expire, which is a point worth paying attention to right now.
Tomorrow (December 27), $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire, which is the largest options expiration event in history on the Deribit platform. These options contracts account for 44% of the total open contracts for Bitcoin options and may trigger significant market volatility.
Maximum pain price: The maximum pain price is $84,000, meaning that at this price point, the losses for both bulls and bears are minimized. The market price may fluctuate around the maximum pain price, but if the current price (around $97,877) is far above the maximum pain price, the bears may face greater pressure.
Market high leverage: Reports mention that the market is in a highly leveraged state, which may exacerbate volatility, especially when prices break through key support or resistance levels.
ETH options situation: At the same time, $3.84 billion worth of ETH options are expiring, indicating that the volatility of the entire crypto market may be further amplified.
This significant event may exacerbate market volatility and could trigger a chain reaction due to the higher leverage levels in the market, which may also shape the narrative entering the new year.
Currently, we can focus on the $90,000 level. If BTC continues to struggle below $100,000, the flow of funds into altcoins will lead to a significant rise in the short term. After all, the cryptocurrency market often experiences cycles where Bitcoin leads and altcoins follow closely! Nevertheless, from tonight until the 27th, we should remain vigilant.
Overall, over 40% of options will expire, and the rolling operation is already underway, with volatility significantly reduced. Therefore, the price is likely to continue to decline. However, if it really drops below $95,000, that would be a good opportunity for us to accumulate in batches!
Has the altcoin bull really arrived?
Now the market's attention has basically become clear: the Bitcoin bull led by institutions and national behavior, the DeFi bull led by the American president and related ETFs, the meme bull with strong on-chain narratives, the AI bull with strong on-chain narratives, and other altcoins. We just need to focus our attention on two or three sectors to outperform the vast majority of altcoins.
Recently, the market has mainly rotated around the AI and DeFi sectors, particularly with strong performance in the AI agent track. Projects like Virtual, Aixbt, and Shoggoth have recently performed well, and everyone is paying attention to the potential in this field.
It is expected that next year AI, decentralized science (DeSci), quantum-resistant technology, and Meme coins will be hot topics. Moreover, AI may surpass traditional Meme coins and become the new market hotspot, which is worth paying attention to.
In terms of platform coins, BGB has recently performed exceptionally well, with massive gains, and the ecological wallet BWB has also risen accordingly. BGB has increased fivefold within a month, with a market cap exceeding $12 billion, even surpassing OKB, which is quite a strong upward trend.
In the DeSci sector, URO and RIF have recently seen good gains, especially since Binance listed BIO and announced airdrops for URO, RIF, and VITA, which undoubtedly brings new momentum to these projects.
In addition to AI agents and the DeSci sector, we can also pay attention to some projects in the DeFi sector. Currently, the projects selected by Trump include LINK, AAVE, ENA, and ONDO.
Musk's selective picks, presidential selective picks, Grayscale's selective picks have been discussed, today let's focus on South Korea's selective picks. Altcoins on CEX are watching Upbit's trading volume, such as UXLINK, MOCA, etc. The South Korean market is always a main force in every bull market, with about 30% of people embracing crypto, which is quite scary.
The altcoin season is underway, with on-chain funds being exceptionally active, especially in the AI sector. After the AI sector, attention will likely return to memes. If you cut losses at the bottom of memes and chase AI at high positions, you might completely miss out. Therefore, timing is crucial in a bull market; a fixed position + a liquid position is an unbeatable configuration.