After the holidays, what will the pancake do today? Will it be a post-holiday carnival, or will it survive the disaster?
1. Recent price performance and trends:
General trend: Starting from the bottom low (92520.00), the price showed a strong rebound, reaching the recent high (99963.70), close to the integer psychological barrier of 100000. The current price fell back to around 98900, forming a short-term shock.
2. Morphological analysis:
Double bottom pattern (potential reversal signal): The price has recently formed an obvious double bottom prototype at the bottom (about 92520-93000), which is becoming more and more obvious. The second bottom is relatively stable, and there is a strong upward attack afterwards, breaking through the neckline (about 97500-98000), and once approaching the psychological barrier of 100000.
Upward channel: The price has retraced multiple times during the upward process, but each retracement low has not fallen below the support line and is gradually rising. Subsequently, the rebound highs are also gradually increasing, forming parallel resistance lines. The candlestick fluctuates between the support and resistance lines, oscillating upwards.
3. Support and resistance:
Support level: Short-term support: 98500 (the lower edge of the previous fluctuation range). Strong support: 97500 (double bottom neckline), if broken, it may retest 96000.
Resistance: Current resistance: around 99407. If it can break through 100000, it may further test 101500 or even 103000.
4. Technical indicator analysis
MACD: DIF is below DEA (DIF < DEA): the fast line crosses below the slow line, indicating that the short-term trend is weakening, and the market may enter a correction phase. The current negative MACD histogram indicates that bearish strength is increasing, but the value (-75) is relatively small, suggesting that the downward trend has just begun and the market has not fully entered a strong bearish state.
From the data, it appears that the market may be gradually weakening from a bullish trend and entering a bearish phase, but the downward force is currently not strong. If the MACD histogram continues to expand negatively, it may indicate a stronger bearish trend.
RSI: RSI14 is currently 56.5, in the neutral to strong area, not entering the overbought range, indicating some room for upward movement.
EMA: EMA7 (98462.2) > EMA30 (97522.0) > EMA120 (98367.2), the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, supporting the upward trend. Pay attention to the support role near EMA7.
Trading volume: Recent trading volume has increased, especially on December 24 and 25, indicating increased market activity. Volume expansion accompanied by intensified price fluctuations requires attention to subsequent changes in trading volume to confirm trend continuity.
5. Short-term strategy suggestion:
Bullish opportunity: If the price stabilizes at 99000 and is accompanied by increased volume (e.g., significant increase in trading volume), it may continue to rise, suitable for short-term bullish trades. Stop-loss can be set below 98500.
Cautious pullback: If the price fails to break through 100000, a short-term pullback may occur, pay attention to whether the 97500 support is effective.
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
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