K33 Research: If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may reach the peak of this bull market on 1/17

K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde stated that based on previous bull market cycles, the average duration from the first all-time high to the last all-time high of Bitcoin in each bull market is 318 days. Starting from Bitcoin's first historical high on March 5 this year, it is estimated that Bitcoin may reach a new peak in this bull market on January 17 next year. (Background: Glassnode Research: Bitcoin's retracement magnitude in each cycle is diminishing, indicating that it may have entered the later stage of a bull market) (Additional context: Ethereum believers have three reasons to be optimistic about ETH's explosive growth in 2025: expected growth to exceed Bitcoin) With the arrival of Christmas, the market originally anticipated that investors would temporarily exit, leading to sustained low-point fluctuations due to reduced liquidity. However, possibly due to institutions or whales seizing the opportunity to accumulate, Bitcoin reached as high as $99,968 this morning at 8 AM, extremely close to the $100,000 mark. As of the writing, it has slightly retreated to $98,945. Analyst: Bitcoin may reach new heights on January 17 Regarding the future trend of Bitcoin, K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde recently stated that based on previous bull market cycles, the average duration from the first all-time high to the last all-time high of Bitcoin in each bull market is 318 days. This means that Bitcoin may reach a new peak in this bull market on January 17: The average duration between the first and last all-time high in a cycle is 318 days. If this situation repeats in this bull market, we could officially welcome the peak of the bull market on January 17, just as Trump's inauguration date is on January 20. Additionally, regarding the price prediction, Vetle Lunde stated that in this cycle, based on previous bull market peaks, Bitcoin's peak price may reach $146,000; if based on previous market value as a reference, Bitcoin may reach up to $212,500 in this cycle. The average duration between the first and last all-time high of a cycle is 318 days. If that repeats in this cycle, we could face a global top on January 17, close to the election (and also close to where MSTR is on track to deplete its ATM). pic.twitter.com/eOBE8NaqQY — Vetle Lunde (@VetleLunde) December 19, 2024 However, it is worth noting that due to the Bitcoin spot ETF listing and trading in the U.S. this year, which has broken multiple records since the gold ETF listing in less than a year, along with President Trump expressing multiple times his intention to promote the development of the cryptocurrency industry after taking office, there are currently analysts suggesting that Bitcoin may have broken the previous bull market patterns, so it is not appropriate to rigidly predict future market trends. This Friday, the largest options in history will expire. An event worth noting this week is that on Friday, $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options open interest (OI) will expire. Deribit Exchange CEO Luuk Strijers previously stated that the ratio of put options to call options for this expiration is 0.69, meaning that for every 10 call options, there are 7 put options. This indicates a certain level of concern about market downturns. At the same time, the number of contracts expiring this time (146,000 contracts) is also significant, being twice the number of contracts expiring in March 2025 (73,000 contracts). Strijers further explained that the expiring contracts account for 44% of the total open interest in Bitcoin options (totaling $32 billion). Deribit Exchange expects that more than $4 billion of these contracts will expire, which is bound to trigger a large amount of trading activity: All eyes will be focused on the upcoming options contract expiration date, as it may set the tone for the market trend in 2025. Related Reports Accurate bottom indicators? Coinbase Bitcoin negative premium just broke 0.2%, BTC starts to rebound Bloomberg analyst: Bitcoin is just undergoing a normal correction! Matrixport is optimistic that $90,000 to $95,000 is the bottom, accumulating strength for the rise in 2025 Robinhood CEO: Does not rule out the possibility of using Bitcoin reserves, company stock price has become highly correlated with BTC "K33 Research: If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may reach the peak of this bull market on 1/17" This article was first published on BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).