Bitcoin surged back to $99,000 fluctuating, with the derivatives market maintaining a neutral bullish stance
Recently, Bitcoin rebounded 6.5% from a low of $92,458, challenging the $99,000 mark multiple times, and is currently fluctuating in a narrow range around that level.
(Cointelegraph) Analyst Marcel Pechman pointed out that although Bitcoin has pulled back from the high of $108,353 recently, the derivatives market still maintains a neutral bullish stance, indicating that market sentiment has not been significantly affected by volatile price movements.
Analysis of Bitcoin monthly futures contracts and options market conditions
Pechman stated that the 2-month Bitcoin futures monthly contract premium is 12%, indicating strong demand for leveraged long positions. Generally, a premium of 5% to 10% is considered neutral, as sellers take longer settlement periods into pricing considerations.
In the options market, Pechman stated that Bitcoin put options (bearish options) are trading at a 2% discount to call options (bullish options), consistent with the trend of the past two weeks. This indicator usually exceeds 6% when large players and market makers expect a potential pullback, reflecting put option premiums.
Source: Laevitas.ch Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium rate
Derivatives data suggest a potential rise to $105,000
Pechman also noted that although on December 24, BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF experienced record outflows, the Bitcoin derivatives and margin markets still show bullish momentum.
Taking the OKX exchange as an example, the current margin ratio for Bitcoin longs and shorts is 25 times, leaning towards long positions. Historical data shows that when the market is overly optimistic, this ratio exceeds 40 times, while below 5 times is considered a bearish signal.
Bitcoin's daily line needs to stay above the 20-day EMA
(Cointelegraph) Another analyst, Rakesh Upadhyay, stated that the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) is an important resistance line in recent days. If it can successfully break through and close above the 20-day EMA during the day, it indicates that the pullback and consolidation trend has ended, with a chance to challenge the historical high of $108,353 again.
As of the time of writing today, the 20-day EMA is at $98,492, while the Bitcoin quote is $98,651.
Source: Cointelegraph Bitcoin's daily line needs to stay above the 20-day EMA
Since Trump's election, OTC trading volume in cryptocurrencies has surged
In addition to derivatives data, recent over-the-counter trading in cryptocurrencies is quite active.
According to (The Block), Tim Ogilvie, head of institutional business at Kraken, revealed that OTC trading volume increased by 220% year-on-year; Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at market maker Wintermute, also noted that the market was relatively calm until prices began rising before the election, at which point market participants started to position themselves.
Brett Reeves, head of Go Network under crypto custody company BitGo, stated that the U.S. election is an important driver of recent trading volume growth, with the past three months accounting for two-thirds of this year's total volume.
Ogilvie added that clients are also starting to shift towards higher-risk crypto assets, beginning with Bitcoin, gradually moving to Ethereum ($ETH), and then to Solana ($SOL) and other altcoins, indicating an increase in risk appetite in the OTC trading market.
'Bitcoin Bulls Are Back! Analyst: Derivatives Data Suggests Bullish, Expected to Surge to 'This Level'' was first published in 'Crypto City'
