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Key support and resistance levels:
Resistances:
1. $0.4242 – $0.4620: zone EMA 20 and lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud.
2. $0.4754: upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud.
3. $0.4937 – $0.5100: significant level according to the volume profile.
4. $0.5331: EMA 50.
Supports:
1. $0.3933: current price, local demand zone.
2. $0.3866 – $0.4155: key Fibonacci retracement zone (0.705 – 0.79).
3. $0.3260 – $0.2630: strong support level according to horizontal volume profiles.
4. $0.2119: level 1.618 according to Fibonacci.
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Formation:
The price is in a descending triangle formation. A breakout above the triangle's upper boundary ($0.4242) with a close above will indicate the start of an upward impulse.
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Scenarios:
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Long scenario (60% probability):
• Conditions:
o Price breaks $0.4242 (EMA 20) and closes above $0.4620.
o RSI rises above 50, volumes start to increase.
• Entry points:
1. $0.3933 – $0.4242: entry on breakout of the triangle's upper boundary.
2. $0.4620 – $0.4754: entry after closing above the Ichimoku cloud.
• Targets:
0. $0.4851: first target (level 0.5 according to Fibonacci).
1. $0.5331 – $0.6549: key resistance zones.
2. $0.8655: long-term target.
• Stop-loss: Below $0.3866.
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Short scenario (40% probability):
• Conditions:
o Price does not break $0.4242 and falls below $0.3933.
o RSI drops below 45, volumes remain low.
• Entry points:
1. $0.4242 – $0.3933: rebound from EMA 20 resistance.
2. $0.3866 – $0.3260: entry on breakout of key support zones.
• Targets:
0. $0.3260: first target.
1. $0.2630: second target (volume level).
2. $0.2119: level 1.618 according to Fibonacci.
• Stop-loss: Above $0.4242.
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Probability ratios:
• Long scenario: 60% (if breaking $0.4242 and closing above $0.4620, growth is possible).
• Short scenario: 40% (if the price closes below $0.3933 with a possible move to $0.3260).
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Conclusions:
• Long scenario has priority if the price breaks $0.4242 and closes above $0.4620, with possible targets up to $0.8655.
• Short scenario should be considered if the price falls below $0.3933, with targets of $0.3260 and $0.2630. #AEVO/USDT