This year's Christmas did not see the anticipated market crash; instead, market sentiment has slightly improved, primarily thanks to the rise in US stocks last night. The previous decline in Bitcoin was also influenced by US stock fluctuations, as typically, a drop in US stocks leads to Bitcoin following suit in the early morning or late night of the next day.
However, if Bitcoin can close higher before the 25th, it means that this year's Christmas is likely to pass peacefully, and the market will gradually show the expected trend before Trump's term.
Looking at Ethereum, its trend is relatively stable, and today it briefly broke through the pressure level of 3500. Ethereum's recovery is not surprising, as its ETF inflow data shows a positive trend, and the support of funds prevents panic in the market. Friends who have been following the Crab Boss for a while should be aware of this, so I won't elaborate further. Looking ahead to January, the market narrative tends to be bullish. First, it is expected that around the 6th of the month, FTX will carry out the first batch of compensation, amounting to about $16 billion. Most of this capital will flow back to Ethereum and altcoins, as the compensation targets are retail investors, and at this position, the cost-effectiveness of investing in Bitcoin is not high. Therefore, it is more likely that victims will choose Ethereum and leading altcoins after receiving compensation funds.
Next, it is well-known that Trump will take office on January 20th, and with a series of economic stimulus policies being introduced, along with whether Trump can fulfill his expectations for relaxed cryptocurrency policies and Bitcoin becoming a strategic reserve of the US, the market outlook is worth paying attention to. Therefore, from the perspective of early layout, if there are opportunities in the near future, besides FTX concepts, Trump's concept and Musk's concept will become the main themes in January.
When will the altcoin season really come?
In the evolution of market conditions, the first wave is usually accompanied by the emergence of small altcoin rallies, followed by a brief adjustment, leading to a second wave of more significant altcoin rallies. Currently, this round of market activity has lasted for three months, and Bitcoin (BTC) has adjusted at the critical level of 100,000, while its market share has also declined. After approximately four weeks of volatility, the adjustment time is basically in place, laying the foundation for the explosion of altcoins.
Everyone does not need to rush into fully investing in altcoins; the arrival of the altcoin season depends not only on Bitcoin's performance but also on the full release of sentiment and funds. To achieve a true altcoin season, Bitcoin needs to rise steadily while Ethereum maintains a strong upward momentum. The synergy between the two will be the best driving force for sentiment and capital.
Looking back at November, the slight strength of altcoins was precisely experienced during Bitcoin's blood-sucking phase, along with Ethereum frequently breaking pressure levels and stabilizing above 4000. In the context of Bitcoin's blood-sucking, Ethereum's rise allowed many altcoins to achieve 2-3 times increases, while some weaker altcoins also rose by over 50%. Therefore, if these conditions are not met, altcoins are unlikely to explode comprehensively. Reiterating this point is not to undermine everyone's confidence and expectations but to remind everyone to be wary of potential downward risks while anticipating the altcoin season.
Once Bitcoin and Ethereum start to pull back, altcoins will also face adjustments. Therefore, we should prepare accordingly depending on different stages of the market. The altcoin season will not arrive immediately; the real expectations might change the altcoin landscape and capital inflow through Trump's statements after he takes office. Relying solely on the current capital situation, it is difficult for altcoins to meet everyone's expectations.
Since Trump's election, why has the market entered a bull market? Why have Ethereum and altcoins risen? I have conducted in-depth analyses from multiple angles, and you can review the Crab Boss's previous articles. Currently, Ethereum has not truly entered the rally stage; only when it continuously rises with volume can it be considered a real rally. A real rally refers to a simultaneous rise in both volume and price, leading to a very rapid increase.
In this cycle, the game between retail investors and big players is exceptionally intense. The vast majority of people cannot grasp that brief 1% rally opportunity, and even those who wait often do not know when to exit. Once Ethereum starts to rally, the market pace will accelerate quickly. One must overcome fear at the bottom and conquer greed at the top. At that time, I will inform everyone immediately, and one must be decisive when exiting. Market volatility means huge opportunities, and next year's bull market will be stronger than now, with even more intense fluctuations; consolidation is an inevitable part of the market. In such a market environment, lacking patience and faith makes it difficult to achieve profits.
Additionally, recently ZEN has been pushed up by Grayscale, and we can also pay attention to altcoins under the Grayscale concept. The US concepts include: XRP, SOL, SUI, LINK, LTC, UNI, while Grayscale's holdings include: ETH, ETC, LTC, BCH, SOL, XLM, ZEN, LINK, ZEC, MANA, LPT, as well as ENA and DOGE.