Merry Christmas to everyone. This Christmas Eve may have been beyond many people's expectations. The US stock market was like a magic spell, soaring after the opening!
Bitcoin was not to be outdone, with BTC’s price bouncing more than $6,000 from low to high in 24 hours, almost breaking through $100,000 again, and even altcoins were seeing a nice upward trend.
We talked about this topic yesterday. The start of the altcoin season must be the result of the joint efforts of emotions and overflow funds. That is, the price of BTC may rise slowly, but at least it is an upward trend, and ETH must maintain a high trend. The former brings emotions, and the latter brings funds.
Will Bitcoin continue to surge? Has the alt season arrived?
Key resistance levels and breakout potential in Bitcoin rally
Yesterday, we analyzed the strong rebound of Bitcoin and the many obstacles it faced. From the daily level, if the closing price of Bitcoin at 8 a.m. today can stand firmly above the three previous K lines, thus forming a "Morning Star" pattern, this will be a signal of its continued rise. Currently, Bitcoin has risen to a certain extent and is at a resistance level.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has formed a double bottom structure and has had a pullback. If this structure continues to develop, it may break through the new resistance level of $99,540. According to the equidistant principle, the further target is $100,600.
At present, the market has not given a clear breakthrough signal. It is recommended to wait and see whether the support of $99,500 can be stabilized. If it fails to break through, short selling should be carried out. If it breaks through, spot buying can be carried out.
Bitcoin key points and operation strategies
The key point now is $99,500. If Bitcoin can break through this point and remain stable, its upside will be further expanded. If it fails to break through, there may be a pullback, which will bring short opportunities. In the short term, if Bitcoin pulls back to around $95,000, when it rebounds, you can consider buying other altcoins.
Ethereum Market Analysis
As for Ethereum, we talked about it yesterday, after it broke through the falling channel, $3,530 became the key upward target. However, it encountered strong resistance at this position and failed to break through. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to observe whether there will be new upward momentum.
Is the copycat season coming? Market observation and copycat index analysis
Many people think that the altcoin season has already arrived. One big V once predicted that December 23 would be the starting point of the altcoin season. In fact, the growth of some altcoins has exceeded that of Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, whether we have really entered the altcoin season requires more observation of the market.
However, judging that we are already in the copycat season based solely on the time scale is not sufficient, so don't blindly follow the trend.
In my opinion, the altcoin season may come, but it may not start until next month. Therefore, at this stage, we can give priority to bottom-fishing altcoins, but we must be patient enough to wait.
During the Christmas period, the entire market is expected to remain in a wide range of fluctuations. In this case, we still have the opportunity to buy the bottom of altcoins again, and everyone must seize this opportunity!
At present, the altcoin index is at 49, which is neither particularly low nor particularly high. Therefore, whether we have truly entered the altcoin season remains to be seen. From historical experience, it is rare for the altcoin index to rise against the trend after falling from a high level. Generally, Bitcoin needs to rise further before altcoins can usher in an explosion.
The period of volatility may be the last chance: No matter how the market fluctuates, this period of volatility may be the best time to prepare for the market in 2025. I am particularly optimistic about the performance of Ethereum and some altcoins next year.
Focus on high-quality areas: Concepts such as RWA, DeFi, AI agent and Grayscale are worthy of special attention and investment.
Is there still an opportunity to buy at the bottom?
Maybe, why do I say that. Currently BTC has rebounded to 98,000. Since the 23rd, ETH has not followed the decline, and BTC pulled up the market last night. Now is a time of extremely low liquidity, and the U.S. stock market is closed tonight. It will not be until after New Year's Day that real liquidity will come back. If there is, it may be during this period. Without liquidity, a little bad news may be enough to smash BTC. If the copycat follows the decline, it will be an opportunity to buy at the bottom, but whether BTC will be smashed actually depends on market sentiment. Then after New Year's Day, the new president will start to hype up his inauguration. The real trend should be from mid-to-late January to early March. So before mid-January, it depends on whether the "Zhuang" behind it will give another chance. To be honest, I can't say.
We need to remind you that this bull market will be very fast:
This round of bull market is the worst experience for holding positions, except for Bitcoin. 99% of the time is spent on floating losses/holding orders, and 1% of the time is spent on pulling the market, and the pull cycle is also very short and fast.
I have repeatedly reminded you in previous articles that the pace of this bull market will be very fast, mainly referring to the pace of the pull-up. The pace will also be very fast when the market starts to pull up, so don't have any pattern or illusions.
Since Trump was elected, I have analyzed everything that needs to be analyzed from various perspectives, including why there is a bull market, why Ethereum is rising, and why altcoins are rising. You can go back and read the previous articles.
ETH is not a real pull-up now. It will enter the pull-up stage only when it increases in volume and rises continuously. The real pull-up is a continuous increase in volume, with both volume and price rising, and it will rise quickly.
The game between retail investors and market makers in this cycle is fierce. The vast majority of people cannot wait for that 1% pull-up time, and among those who wait, most don’t know when to run.
Once ETH starts to pull up, the whole pace will be very fast. You need to overcome fear at the bottom and greed at the top. When it is time to run, I will inform everyone in the community as soon as possible, and don't drag your feet when running.
Where there is volatility there is great opportunity. Next year's bull market will be much better than today, and the volatility will be more intense. Washing is a necessary link. In this market environment, it is difficult to really make money without patience and faith.