According to the latest liquidation map, the current price of BTC is 98041. Combining the liquidation wall and market data in the figure, we can make the following analysis on the market conditions next week:
1. Liquidation Wall Analysis
1. Short Liquidation Wall (Red):
• Above the current price of 98041, there is less short liquidation pressure, which means that there are relatively few short leveraged positions in the market.
• However, as the price approaches 102,000-106,000, the short liquidation volume gradually increases. This area is a potential resistance area. If the price breaks through here, it may trigger a large number of short liquidations and push the price to continue to rise.
2. Long Liquidation Wall (Green):
• Below the current price, especially around 95000-96000, there is an obvious area of concentrated long liquidations.
• If the price pulls back to this area, it may trigger long liquidation, leading to further price declines. However, this area may also provide short-term support.
2. Market sentiment and trends
• Oscillating or rising trend:
• The current market long leverage is relatively concentrated, but the trend of prices approaching the short liquidation wall shows that market sentiment is bullish. If prices continue to break through, there may be a short-term rally.
• Potential risks:
• If market sentiment weakens (such as macroeconomic or negative news), prices may fall back to the long liquidation wall area, creating short-term downside risk.
3. Market forecast for next week
Bullish scenario:
• If the price breaks through 102,000-106,000, it could trigger a large number of short liquidations, pushing the price further up to 110,000 or higher.
• The probability of this scenario is high, especially if market sentiment continues to be bullish.
Downside scenario:
• If the price pulls back to around 95000-96000, it may trigger long liquidation, leading to further testing of the support below.
• The probability of a downside scenario is relatively low, but cannot be ignored.
4. Suggested strategies
1. Short-term trading:
• If the price breaks above 102,000, you can go long with the target price at 106,000 or higher.
• If the price falls below 96,000, you can consider short-term shorting with a target around 94,000.
2. Long-term layout:
• Build positions in appropriate batches in the 95000-96000 area and wait for the price to recover.
• Pay attention to the resistance area of 106,000 above and gradually reduce positions.
3. Risk Control:
• Set a reasonable stop loss (e.g. above 102,000 for shorting or below 96,000 for longing).
• Pay close attention to market news and capital movements to avoid large fluctuations caused by unexpected events.
