According to ChainCatcher news, as reported by Jinshi, numerous market indicators suggest that Trump's new term will face a U.S. stock market at historically high valuations. Data shows that the proportion of U.S. household stock allocation has increased from 48.3% at the beginning of 2024 to 51.8%. This indicator has the most significant four-year return forecasting ability since 1952, and current data suggests that the actual annualized return of U.S. stocks from 2025 to 2029 could be -1.5%.
Although the family stock allocation reached a historic high during the 2020 inauguration, the S&P 500 index still achieved an inflation-adjusted annual return of 9.3% (above the average of 7.2% since 1952), but the current market situation has changed significantly. Several valuation indicators are now at high levels above 90% relative to their historical distribution since 1950, 1970, and 2000, with some even reaching extreme values of 100%, indicating that U.S. stock returns may only keep pace with inflation over the next four years. If Trump wants to maintain his tradition of using stock market performance as a political achievement, he will face significant challenges.