In the evening live broadcast, we talked about the recent market analysis and when the copycat season will come? Here, I will also summarize and share my personal thoughts and opinions with you:
The recent pullback may make everyone feel disappointed and desperate, and then they may pessimistically think that the bull market is still there. After all, Bitcoin is almost 110,000, and most of the altcoins are still in a terrible state. Then Sister Bei will recharge your faith.
This sharp correction is more of a reaction to the gains since Trump took office, and the hawkish views of the Federal Reserve and Powell to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, but this cannot change the course of the Bitcoin bull market. Many people's reaction to this bull market is that there are only two kinds of coins, Bitcoin and other coins. Bitcoin is still Bitcoin, and many altcoins have changed. There is serious polarization. In the final analysis, it is still due to insufficient liquidity. There is only one Bitcoin, but there are countless altcoins. The serious lack of liquidity and diversion caused it. But this does not mean that there is no bull market for altcoins, it is just delayed. Sister Bei can clearly say: "The bull market is still there, and the bull market for altcoins has not yet come."
Let's take a look at the following sets of data. Historically, the bull market after Christmas often marks the beginning of a new major trend.
In every second year after halving, such as January to April in 2017 and 2021, the market tends to perform the best. This period coincided with Trump's official inauguration on January 20, which marked the beginning of cryptocurrency. The Trump administration will bring a series of policies, from recent appointments of crypto figures to the inclusion of the reserve bill on the agenda, as well as spot ETFs for XRP, SOL, and DOGE. The Ethereum ETF allows staking and the Prague upgrade is favorable, along with various policies benefiting cryptocurrency that are currently happening. We can see that in the past month, the issuance of Tether USDT, representing the hot money in the crypto circle, has surpassed 20 billion USD, which clearly indicates that hot money is pouring in to buy, buy, buy!
With the large demand for spot ETFs this round, the depth of Bitcoin's pullback has been suppressed. As the market grows, the severity of Bitcoin's retracement in a bull market has decreased. The maximum pullback in this period was -32% (on August 5, 2024), with most pullbacks only 20%-25% lower than local peaks, reflecting the rising demand for spot ETFs and institutional interest. Data also supports this: spot ETFs have purchased Bitcoin worth 112.6 billion USD in this round, and this figure is still increasing weekly. 5% of Bitcoin's total supply has already been purchased, and this is just the beginning. The crazy MicroStrategy announced yesterday that it bought 560 million USD worth of Bitcoin at a purchase price of 106,662 USD. MicroStrategy has accumulated a total of 444,262 Bitcoins, totaling 27.7 billion USD, with an average purchase price of 62,257 USD. On the 22nd, CZ tweeted claiming that the UAE holds over 40 billion USD in Bitcoin. If this data is accurate, it means that the UAE holds at least 400,000 Bitcoins, equal to the total holdings of the US and Chinese governments!
Next, through the charts of Bitcoin and altcoin bull market indices, we can clearly see that after the altcoin bull market index surged to the 90 mark, it has currently pulled back to around 50. It has gained support and is moving towards a breakthrough at key resistance levels. The upward trend line of the altcoin bull market index is still intact and has not been broken by the recent downturn. All of this is likely to happen in January after Christmas, and the quarter after the new year is also worth looking forward to.
Currently, Bitcoin's market share is 56.3% and has not yet fallen below 50%. Every time after Christmas, we see Bitcoin's market share quickly decline and eventually drop below 50%, only to be replaced by the market share of altcoins, which will also usher in an altcoin bull market — a bull market that retail investors are eagerly anticipating. This will bring about a huge wealth effect. The capital overflow from Bitcoin and sector rotation effects have been detailed in recent articles by Beijie, and interested friends can look it up.
Every time after Christmas, the price trend of Bitcoin is also exciting. From the Bitcoin halving in 2012 to 2020, the trend of Bitcoin after Christmas each year has been eye-catching. Moreover, the large inflow of ETFs in the past two months indicates the direction of the main forces. Since November, spot ETFs have started to buy Ethereum in large volumes, changing the previous continuous selling by Grayscale, or the situation of almost no purchasing volume. Everything is heading in a positive direction. Whether from the exchange rates of Bitcoin and altcoins or the trend of Bitcoin itself, there are many expectations. All of this confirms that the bull market has not ended; if you miss this round, it would be equivalent to missing the entire bull market. This may be the last opportunity to get on board. $RAY $PEPE $FLOKI #币安Alpha第6批项目上線 #灰度提交Horizen信托文件 #加密市场反弹 #BinanceLabs投资Usual #币安LaunchpoolBIO
