Is the Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates in 2025? 40% probability, the market is already restless!

Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve showcased a "hawkish" operation with three rate cuts, bringing the federal funds rate down to the 4.25%-4.5% range. However, the indicator for 2025 has quietly shifted — the probability of a rate hike is assessed at 40%! It may not seem high, but it's enough to accelerate the market's heartbeat!

Inflation has once again taken center stage. It rebounded from a low of 2.4% within the year to 2.7% in November, making the script for "further rate cuts" a bit more challenging. Strong economic activity acts as a push, continually bringing potential inflationary pressure, making the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy increasingly unclear.

So the question arises — is economic strength leading to a hawkish policy? Or is stubborn inflation forcing the Federal Reserve to unleash a rate hike? Behind the policy game, the global financial storm of 2025 may just be showing the tip of the iceberg.

Follow Uncle Qian, and I'll help you understand the next moves of the Federal Reserve!