Can BTC safely survive Christmas Eve?
The three trading strategies given yesterday may not be absolutely perfect, but the rhythm was completely correct. I executed according to this strategy: going long, shorting, and then going long again, it was very smooth. The only imperfection was that the shorting point in the second step did not reach a more ideal price, and the planned entry point for going long in the third step was not low enough. However, this morning, the long positions still yielded great results. I have been emphasizing that BTC is relatively weak these days, making it likely that the highs will fall short of expectations while the lows will be lower than expected, so everyone needs to respond flexibly.
Yesterday, the Nasdaq index performed basically as predicted: it opened high, made a slight surge before pulling back, then tested the lows and gradually climbed to a new high, maintaining it until the close. However, BTC's performance was relatively weak, especially in the latter half of the day where the recovery after testing the lows was much later than the Nasdaq and the rebound was far weaker than that of the Nasdaq. Nevertheless, other cryptocurrencies seemed to perform better last night. Currently, both BTC and the Nasdaq are aligned in direction, but their rhythm and strength differ. The recent movements of the Nasdaq remain crucial for predicting BTC's movements. There are two hidden dangers in the Nasdaq's performance last night: first, the strength and extent of the bottoming out were insufficient; second, the closing level has reached a pressure zone, facing heavy resistance less than 100 points above.
Yesterday, there was an expectation for a recovery after testing the lows for the Nasdaq, but tonight's concern is only about pullbacks. Tonight, U.S. stocks will close three hours early at 2 AM, and there will be a market holiday tomorrow.
BTC's recent performance has been relatively weak, with daily highs and lows continuously declining since last Saturday. The only optimistic sign is that it has not yet fallen below last Friday's low. Continue to pay attention to the Nasdaq's performance tonight, and be cautious of potential pullbacks.
Today's trading strategy focuses on shorting primarily with some long positions as a supplement. 1. Aggressively short near 95200; better shorting positions would be 96400 and 97200, with the best approach being to short in batches. A reasonable stop-loss point is 98000, with a target of 93000-93500. It should be noted that if the Nasdaq and BTC show a strong rebound tonight, the probability of BTC continuing upward tomorrow will be relatively high, and short positions should be closed in time. 2. Go long near 93100, with a stop-loss below last Friday's low, targeting 95000 and 96200. If the Nasdaq follows a pullback today, be cautious as it may break last Friday's low.