Article reprinted from: Odaily Planet Daily
Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010)
In the past week, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback, dropping about 15% from its historical high of $108,300 to around $92,000. Currently, as market sentiment stabilizes, Bitcoin's price has recovered to around $96,000, entering a consolidation phase.
The continuous decline over the past days has caused significant blood loss for altcoins, with many token prices even dropping to levels before October, erasing the 'Trump Effect' increase that followed Trump's election as President of the United States. Nevertheless, with the Christmas holiday approaching, many believe that the 'Christmas disaster' will further exacerbate the market downturn.
However, as 2025 approaches, a series of positive factors such as Trump's inauguration and Bitcoin reserve strategies are building up, and the cryptocurrency industry is still expected to welcome a new round of 'dawn moments'.
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the views of industry figures, the status of institutional buying, and some on-chain activities, providing readers with a more comprehensive perspective on the market.
Overview of industry perspectives: most are bullish, while few are bearish.
From the perspective of industry mainstream figures, most believe that the current correction in BTC is only temporary, mainly due to the rapid breakout of new highs around $108,000. Meanwhile, altcoin holders are showing a tendency to sell urgently, causing market turbulence. As 2024 comes to an end and 2025 approaches, BTC is expected to continue reaching new highs.
CZ: waiting for new headlines as Bitcoin continues to set new highs.
Binance co-founder CZ recently stated that he is waiting for new headlines as Bitcoin continues to set new highs. Previously, CZ tweeted four years ago that BTC 'collapsed' from $101,000 to $85,000 while waiting for news headlines to report.
Cathie Wood: BTC will become more scarce than gold due to institutional demand.
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that due to institutional demand, Bitcoin is becoming 'more scarce than gold', and she previously predicted that by 2030, the price of BTC will exceed $1 million.
Bitwise CIO: BTC has three unstoppable sources of demand: ETFs, MicroStrategy, and others.
On December 19, Bitwise Asset Management's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed out three 'unstoppable' sources of demand for Bitcoin: ETFs, MicroStrategy, and the government itself possibly becoming a Bitcoin buyer. He added: 'It ultimately comes down to supply and demand. Too much demand, insufficient supply, so I believe prices will be higher in 2025.'
Trader Peter Brandt: BTC may continue to rise, with a recent price target of $125,000.
After recently breaking below the $91,000 mark, BTC experienced a strong rebound this weekend and has since slightly pulled back to around $96,000. During this process, veteran trader Peter Brandt reiterated his bullish view on BTC, stating that it may continue to rise in the future. Furthermore, other on-chain indicators also suggest a positive momentum for BTC in the future. In a recent analysis, Brandt indicated that BTC could reach $108,358 in the coming days.
Peter Brandt's candlestick analysis.
However, he also cited technical charts warning that BTC's price could pull back to $76,614 in an upward trend, adding that 'this is not a prediction', pointing out the risks present in the market. He stated that these analyses only reflect 'possibilities, not probabilities, and not certainties.' Additionally, his recent price target for BTC is $125,000.
Lark Davis: The current pullback is not the 'end of the bull market'; the market still has ample fuel.
Crypto KOL and industry analyst Lark Davis analyzed historical data and believes that the current correction in the crypto market is not the 'end of the bull market'. He stated: 'In December 2020, after experiencing a 77% increase from October to November, BTC dropped by 12%. Subsequently, it rose from $17,000 to $41,000 (an increase of 136%) over the next 23 days. A similar situation is happening now; Bitcoin has dropped 13% after a significant rise in the fourth quarter. This does not mean this is the bottom; we may see another 10-15% correction. But Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market still have ample fuel.'
Analyst: This pullback in Bitcoin is highly correlated with Coinbase's sell-off since October 26.
The recent drop in BTC's price marks a sharp shift in market sentiment, with market feelings rapidly transitioning from extreme bullishness to uncertainty and caution. As altcoins suffer heavy losses, Bitcoin's pullback has raised concerns about the sustainability of the recent uptrend.
Top analyst Maartunn recently emphasized that this adjustment coincides with the most severe sell-off activity from Coinbase since October 26 (when BTC was trading at $66,000). The increased selling pressure clearly indicates a shift in the market from a bullish to a fearful and hesitant sentiment. The combination of reduced buying activity and increased selling pressure suggests that the market is struggling to maintain upward momentum. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently testing the $92,000 level in search of support.
Bitfinex: Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by mid-2025, maintaining a mild correction trend.
Bitfinex analysts stated in a recent market report that due to strong institutional demand, the decline of Bitcoin in 2025 will be brief, predicting that in the best-case scenario, the price of Bitcoin will double by June 2025, with the lowest estimate reaching $145,000 by mid-2025 and possibly rising to $200,000 under favorable conditions.
Analysts stated: 'We believe that due to institutional fund inflows, any adjustment in 2025 will remain mild.' They pointed out that while fluctuations in Bitcoin are expected in the first quarter of 2025, the 'broader trend' indicates that its price will continue to rise, thanks to the ongoing inflows of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the increasing global and institutional adoption rates.
CryptoQuant CEO: This is not a traditional altcoin season; rather, it is an independent market for a few tokens.
On December 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that Bitcoin's market share had dropped by 6% (with XRP contributing 3%), but has started to recover. Currently, only a few altcoins are attracting new liquidity, and the fund rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins is limited.
He believes this is not a traditional altcoin season, but rather an independent market for a few exceptionally performing tokens.
Trader Eugene: Altcoin investors are eager to sell spot assets, and the market may enter a longer period of consolidation.
Renowned trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio expressed his views on the altcoin market, stating: 'Alts quickly fell back to these levels within 48 hours after forming wick lows, indicating extreme anxiety among investors holding spot assets and a rush to sell. The market may enter a longer adjustment phase or rapidly decline in the short term.'
Analyst: Seeing a significant correction in a cryptocurrency bull market is 'very typical'.
Earlier, Bitcoin had just set a new historical high of over $108,000, and the recent drop in the crypto market has had a greater impact on altcoins like Ethereum and Dogecoin. Last Thursday, a group of U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin ended a 15-day streak of inflows, recording an outflow of $680 million, highlighting the shift in market sentiment.
Data and analysis director Strahinja Savic of FRNT Financial stated that seeing such significant pullbacks during a cryptocurrency bull market is 'very typical', while QCP Capital noted in a report that the fundamental reason for the sell-off was the market's 'overly optimistic' positioning.
Strong buying: BTC ETF continues to see inflows, with both national and corporate entities following suit.
From the perspective of basic market buying, it is still in the 'batting zone' of institutional trading, with funds from the US BTC ETF, El Salvador, US listed companies, and Japanese listed companies continuously purchasing BTC, and the holding costs being not far from the current BTC spot price. Institutions are relatively optimistic about BTC's future performance.
Bitcoin Cap Table: ETFs, the government, and MSTR currently hold 31% of all Bitcoin, doubling from last year.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju released an update on Bitcoin holdings, stating that ETFs, the government, and MSTR now hold 31% of all Bitcoin, up from 14% last year.
BTC holdings pie chart information.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF's trading volume reached $26 billion in the 50th week, with an inflow of $17.5 billion so far in Q4.
According to Trader T's monitoring, the net inflow for the US spot Bitcoin ETF in the 50th week reached $463 million, with a trading volume of $26 billion. Additionally:
As of now, the inflow of Bitcoin ETFs in the fourth quarter has reached $17.5 billion (the best quarter);
BlackRock IBIT's inflow amounts to $1.452 billion;
Other ETFs have an outflow of $989 million.
El Salvador intensifies its BTC purchases, with a mid-term goal of increasing its holdings by 20,000 BTC.
On December 21, Bitcoin Magazine reported that El Salvador's President's senior Bitcoin advisor Max Keiser revealed: 'President Bukele has increased daily Bitcoin purchases, with a mid-term goal of adding 20,000 Bitcoin.' On December 22, El Salvador's wallet address increased by approximately 11 BTC (worth $1.06 million) for its strategic Bitcoin reserves.
Previously, El Salvador reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to obtain a $1.4 billion credit line, but there were requirements to 'reduce Bitcoin risk'; when asked about Bitcoin's legal tender status in El Salvador, IMF spokesperson Kozak stated that the use of Bitcoin will be voluntary.
In recent news, El Salvador's Bitcoin office director Stacy Herbert clarified that even after reaching an agreement, the country will continue to 'accelerate' Bitcoin purchases, which is part of its strategic Bitcoin reserve strategy. Herbert also explained that Bitcoin will remain the country's legal tender, and the government will continue to sponsor several cryptocurrency-focused educational programs. The Bitcoin office reports that the '1 BTC per day' purchase plan will continue.
In addition, the country made additional purchases, increasing its holdings by 30 BTC in the past 7 days and 53 BTC in the past 30 days.
Australia's Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF holds 272 BTC.
As of December 19, Australia's Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) holds 272 BTC, with an AUM of approximately $44.34 million.
Australia's BTC ETF continues to increase its holdings.
Statistics: At least 10 companies are currently adopting or considering adopting MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy.
Statistics show that at least 10 companies are currently adopting or considering adopting MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, including:
AI company Genius Group: currently holds 294 BTC.
Pickup solutions provider Worksport: the company's board approved an initial purchase of $5 million worth of BTC and XRP.
Amazon: shareholders propose that the company's board evaluate the potential benefits of adding Bitcoin to its financial strategy.
MicroStrategy: currently holds 439,000 BTC.
MARA Holdings: currently holds 44,394 BTC.
Tesla: currently holds 9,720 BTC.
Coinbase: currently holds 9,480 BTC as part of its reserves.
Hut 8 Mining Corp: currently holds 10,096 BTC.
Block Inc.: currently holds 8,027 BTC.
OneMedNet: currently holds 34 BTC.
Among them, Bitcoin mining company MARA previously disclosed data indicating that it raised $1.925 billion through convertible notes in November and December and purchased 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529, worth approximately $1.53 billion, and repurchased approximately $263 million of its existing convertible notes due in 2026, expecting to use the remaining proceeds to purchase more Bitcoin. Hut 8 surpassed Tesla on December 19 to become the fourth public company to hold over 10,000 BTC.
Japanese listed company Metaplanet has increased its holdings by 619.7 BTC.
On December 23, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced another increase of 619.7 BTC, spending a total of 9.5 billion yen (approximately $60.68 million), with an average purchase price of about $97,800; its total BTC holdings increased to 1,761.98 BTC.
Increase holding documentation.
Glassnode: The degree of Bitcoin pullback in the bull market trend has decreased, with most corrections around 25%.
Glassnode previously stated, 'Interestingly, as the market grows, the severity of Bitcoin's pullback in the bull market trend has decreased. The deepest pullback during this cycle was -32% (August 5, 2024), while most corrections were around a 25% drop from previous highs, reflecting the demand for spot ETFs and the growing interest of institutions.'
Glassnode tends to see a gradual decrease in the degree of pullback.
On-chain activity: Increase in the number of wallet addresses, awakening of dormant addresses, long-term holders exiting.
On-chain activities show a polarized phenomenon: on one hand, after extending the time scale, the number of holding addresses for mainstream cryptocurrencies has increased to varying degrees, starting from at least 25%; on the other hand, ancient BTC addresses that have been dormant for over 10 years are waking up, with many long-term BTC holders gradually exiting.
In the past two years, the number of non-empty wallets for BTC and ETH has increased by 27% and 47%, respectively.
Santiment stated that the number of cryptocurrency holders has significantly increased over the past two years. Here are the numbers of non-empty wallets for the top four cryptocurrencies by market capitalization:
BTC: 54.7 million (+27%);
ETH: 134.9 million (+47%);
USDT: 6.57 million (+66%);
XRP: 5.75 million (+28%).
Analyst: As of December 20, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges this month.
On December 20, crypto analyst AIi stated that as of now, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in December, and this trend does not seem to be slowing down.
BTC continues to flow out of exchanges.
Since September, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold 1 million BTC.
In mid-December, long-term Bitcoin holders have been selling large amounts of Bitcoin, with their total Bitcoin holdings decreasing from about 14.2 million in mid-September to about 13.2 million. Bitcoin's current trading price is 13% lower than the historical peak of around $108,000, which is the highest level since Trump won the US election in early November.
According to Glassnode data, on December 19, long-term Bitcoin holders sold nearly 70,000 BTC, marking the fourth largest single-day sell-off this year.
Recently, multiple addresses holding over $20 million, dormant for years, were activated.
Bitcoin fell below $96,000 on December 22, down approximately 11% since breaking through $108,000 on December 17, 2024.
Meanwhile, at block height 875,560 on the Bitcoin network, a wallet that had been dormant since July 25, 2015, was activated and transferred 44.99 BTC, marking its first activity since creation. The same user actually transferred a total of 59.99 BTC, moving funds from three old P2PKH addresses to two P2WPKH wallets. Of these, 44.99 BTC came from 2015, when the trading price of BTC was $290. Then, 43 blocks later, several dormant wallets from 2017 became active, transferring a small amount of Bitcoin (0.00000547 BTC) at block 875,603.
This pattern of sending Bitcoin fragments cleverly conceals larger-scale transfers. Once the satoshis are settled, a newly minted P2WPKH wallet will receive 99.999 BTC, valued at approximately $9.7 million at current prices. On Saturday, a wallet dormant for 12 years was activated, transferring 104.99 BTC, which was valued at only $11 at the time, totaling $1,200. Today, these BTC are worth over $10 million. This transfer also migrated from an old P2PKH address to a new P2WPKH address.
BTC continues to flow out of exchanges: Coinbase's outflow accelerates.
Coinglass data shows that the current Coinbase Pro Bitcoin wallet balance is 733,076.34 BTC, ranking first among CEX; there was an inflow of 16.69 BTC in the past 24 hours, an outflow of 14,661.50 BTC in the past 7 days, and an outflow of 70,185.16 BTC in the past 30 days.
Binance's Bitcoin wallet balance is 571,802.93 BTC, with an inflow of 1,458.46 BTC in the past 24 hours, an inflow of 4,199.11 BTC in the past 7 days, and an outflow of 10,412.79 BTC in the past 30 days.
