Growing speculation around the possibility of the president pardoning Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) has been fueled by high-profile figures and shifting political trends. A key ally of Trump, Elon Musk, would be "shocked" if U.S. President Joe Biden did not soon pardon the disgraced former CEO of FTX.

Cryptocurrency, Politics, and Pardons

Bankman-Fried, who was convicted in November 2023 on seven charges, including fraud and embezzlement, is currently serving a 25-year sentence for his role in the cryptocurrency exchange's collapse. However, rumors of a pardon have circulated, partly due to his key political connections.

As one of the largest donors to the Democratic Party, Bankman-Fried's connections with key political figures, particularly Biden, have led many to wonder whether his political influence could play a role in securing a pardon. Speculation surrounding the possibility of a pardon has gained additional attention following comments from Musk, who tweeted that he would be "shocked if this doesn't happen."

This statement aligns with changing predictions on platforms like Polymarket, where the pardon rate could rise from 4% to 13%, indicating increasing belief that SBF's relationship with political elites may influence his fate.

The process of SBF's transformation from a cryptocurrency genius to a convicted fraudster is one of the most disgraceful collapses in recent financial history. At its peak, he was hailed as a leading figure in the industry, founding FTX in 2019 and rapidly building it into one of the largest exchanges in the world.

He has built a public image as a technology innovator committed to social goals, which has earned him widespread recognition beyond the cryptocurrency space. His political contributions are substantial, with over $5 million donated to Biden's 2020 campaign, most of his donations going to the Democratic Party.

However, the collapse of FTX at the end of 2022 exposed an $8 billion loss in customer funds that sent shockwaves throughout the financial world. While the lawsuit against him led to a conviction, some continue to speculate that the president's pardon could allow the Biden administration to move past the scandal.

The fate of Ross Ulbricht remains unclear

Meanwhile, Biden's pardon rate for Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road market, currently stands at 9%. However, Ulbricht may be freed under President Donald Trump after the president-elect committed to pardoning him earlier this year. Ulbricht was sentenced in 2015 on multiple charges, including drug trafficking and money laundering, and is serving a life sentence.

While libertarians and cryptocurrency advocates see him as a symbol of free trade and argue that the punishment meted out to him is unjust, critics emphasize Silk Road's connection to the overdose crisis and allege that Ulbricht plotted murder to protect his platform. Silk Road, which operated from 2011 to 2013, pioneered anonymous online trading using Bitcoin and Tor. Ulbricht's mother, Lyn, has led a prominent campaign to reduce her son's sentence, garnering widespread public support.

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