The issue with the altcoin season mainly arises from the exponential growth in the number of cryptocurrencies over the past few years, leading to the dispersion of capital and a lack of innovation. Therefore, it is basically unlikely to see a repeat of the past scenario where prices surged everywhere; in the future, there may be structural and localized valuable increases.

Now, let's talk about the expectations for interest rate cuts; the viewpoint remains unchanged.

Do not assume that an interest rate cut means large-scale monetary easing or continued massive surges. We need to consider where the cuts begin, the magnitude of the cuts, and the range in which long-term rates will be maintained.

The past viewpoint was that high-interest rates would stay between 3-4% for a long time. Currently, the appropriate reduction from rates above 5% is merely to prevent an economic recession. Note that this interest rate cut is preventive, not a continuation of printing money to impact the market.

For those willing to deposit money in banks, interest rates of 3%-5% are actually considered high.

Significant interest rate cuts typically only occur during market slumps, when stock prices and housing prices continue to decline, causing a loss of confidence; only then will the authorities start to adjust and inject liquidity to save the market.

We have not seen a global market that has risen for two years, still at high valuations, and then opens the floodgates for monetary easing.

If monetary easing is implemented at high levels, there will be two issues:

1. High inflation will return;

2. When a real crisis, collapse, or downturn occurs in the market, what will be used to rescue it? Continuing to print larger amounts of money? This is certainly unreliable and will only lead to credit collapse, currency depreciation, and persistently higher inflation.

Appropriate interest rate cuts to prevent economic problems are reasonable.

Therefore, at this stage, an interest rate cut does not equate to large-scale monetary easing; it is just a moderate adjustment, and long-term rates will still remain high.

Finally, a brief summary of the altcoin season and the logic of interest rate cuts:

The dispersion and lack of innovation in the cryptocurrency market: As the number of cryptocurrencies increases, the dispersion of capital will indeed affect the overall market performance. In the future, there may be structural and localized increases rather than a comprehensive surge.

Expectations for interest rate cuts: An interest rate cut does not equal large-scale monetary easing, which is very important. The purpose of interest rate cuts is to prevent economic recession, not to stimulate the market. Appropriate cuts in a high-interest environment are to prevent excessive tightening of the economy, not to trigger a new round of inflation. #币安Alpha公布第5批项目 #币安LaunchpoolBIO