#比特币市场波动观

This round of Bitcoin's bull market originates from Trump's election, especially the previous high point of $70,000, which was also when Trump's election prospects became clear, and Bitcoin began to surge, ultimately breaking through $100,000. First, throughout the entire Trump campaign process, especially in the month or so after his successful election, there were continuous rumors about Bitcoin being included in the U.S. strategic management assets and even on the balance sheet: At the Bitcoin2024 conference held in July 2024, Trump explicitly promised in his speech to 'never sell' the Bitcoin held and future acquired by the government, and insisted on the concept of 'strategic Bitcoin reserves'; on December 16, Bitcoin set a new historical high record above $107,000. With the price of Bitcoin continuing to rise, Trump reiterated the plan to establish a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve.

Currently, the most specific Bitcoin reserve proposal circulating in the U.S. suggests creating a reserve fund managed by the Treasury, purchasing 200,000 Bitcoins annually over five years, until the reserve reaches 1 million, which would account for about 5% of the total global supply of approximately 21 million Bitcoins. Especially as Trump changed his previous hostile attitude towards Powell, this was interpreted by the market as a sign of goodwill, and the market expected Powell to support Trump's economic proposals. However, unexpectedly, Powell came out swinging: On December 19, at a press conference after the monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphatically stated: 'We are not allowed to hold Bitcoin.' This statement hit like a heavy hammer, instantly shattering the dreams of cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Powell further explained that the Federal Reserve Act clearly defines the types of assets that the Federal Reserve can hold, and Bitcoin is not included in this list. Additionally, with the 'Federal Reserve cutting interest rates +25 basis points, and possibly only cutting rates twice next year', this means that the market's dollar liquidity will be lower than expected, and regardless of whether it's Bitcoin or gold, the support for price increases must come from currency, which undoubtedly caused a sharp decline in the cryptocurrency market. This round of Bitcoin is likely to pull back to $80,000, I still adhere to my investment philosophy, continuing to purchase USDT in a flexible manner, and at the appropriate time, buying spot new coins, after all, whether it's Trump's administration or Musk's antics, there is still room for speculation in cryptocurrencies in the future.

$BTC