$BTC $ETH

Evening Analysis:

Is the market repeating the 4000-3000 pattern again? You have definitely experienced this market!

I just went through a review of the overall market and found some interesting things! It might be worth considering as reference content! Mainly focusing on Ethereum's trend, it's exhilarating to watch!

Firstly, it can be observed that every time it breaks 4000, there is a severe drop; this is the fourth time!

First time: In May 2021, the price of 4100+ dropped to 3100 in 3 days.

Second time: In September 2021, around 4050, it dropped to 2950 in 2 days.

The November 4800 case belongs to the terminal market and won't be counted for now.

Third time: In March 2024, the price of 4098 dropped to 3100 in 3 days.

The intermediate ETF through this case does not count, as it was an intermittent rise and did not go above 4000;

Fourth time: In December 2024, the price of 4100 dropped to 3100 in 3 days.

So the question arises, will the next market arrive as expected?

According to the previous bull market pattern, BTC's 4000 had 3 moves. Before the bull market ended, it hit 4800! This time it has only had 2 moves and has not broken the previous high; if it makes one more move to 5000, will there be a chance? If you believe, then act on that belief; if not, then it could be troublesome 😂

First, let's look at the upcoming trends; Ethereum's 1-2-3-5-7-day lines are all in dead cross. The 4-6-8-12 hour levels are in golden cross; thus, there will be a rebound at the segment level, and the larger level will still see a downward probe. For upward movement, we can only look at 35-36 for now, and for downward movement, we see if it can break 31; I emphasize again, there are no absolutes! The fluctuation range is roughly the main focus!

In terms of operations, it is divided into spot and contracts. For spot, divide into 2-3 portions; if it breaks 3200, it’s fine to hold! If it drops to 3050-2950-2850, add more! The rest can continue dollar-cost averaging as long as it does not affect your life; if choosing contracts, aim for a breakout, or wait for a bottom divergence signal to appear, which is best!

Regarding BTC, this drop has not perfectly broken 94; every time it reaches 94, there’s a rebound, but the rise is relatively weak. Based on the fact that institutions during Christmas do not have much buying power, the task of retracing still needs to be completed. Can it drop to 88-86? For now, I’m not very confident! Because I am waiting for the daily zero axis; if it breaks the previous high, it must return to the zero axis. This is a math problem! So I will lay out long positions on the zero axis! Currently, the only support for going long is the Bollinger Bands' bottom, and the 94 level has dense support; technically, it exceeds my bullish understanding! So for now, I give up! I feel safer going short; at least the weekly trend is still in a dead cross.