The drop on Friday + V rebound basically covered the weekend's market. It can be seen that with the double festival approaching, liquidity in the crypto market has clearly weakened, so the market this week should mainly be fluctuating, and the profit-making effect will be much less than before.
On December 20, Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 277 million, while Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of 75.1 million. This time even Beichai's 1BIT is flowing out, which is definitely a key turning point. A very critical turning point. Following the Ethereum Foundation, the second top escape master has appeared, Sun Yuchen returned 39,999 ETH (143 million USD) from Lido Finance and ether.f, and then deposited all into HTX. Since November 10, as ETH prices began to rise, he has deposited 108,919 ETH (400 million USD) into HTX at an average price of 3,674 USD. Currently, he still has 42,904 ETH (139 million USD) being unstaked from Lido, which may soon be deposited into HTX. Sun was also a master of escaping the top with over 4,500 ETH back in the day.
Although he still holds a lot, this wave should obviously indicate some top signs. This Friday is the annual options expiration day and the day for contracts and other derivatives expiration. With Christmas approaching, liquidity is expected to be lower. This week should mainly see a fluctuating downward trend. Currently, the biggest pain point for annual options is 84,000. Based on the current data, if this Friday is below 90,000 USD, the holders of options (CALL) will win big.
Of course, options can no longer influence the price changes of Bitcoin. Currently, it seems they might only suppress its upward momentum. CALL buyers shouldn't make too much profit. Market interpretation: Last week's prediction was mostly correct; the bottom was not the lowest. Looking back at last week's view, buying at 94,000 was the bottom, with a rebound to 99,000 showing bullish strength.
Currently, this wave is doing very well, and as I mentioned last week, there might be new lows this week. The reason is that the ETF might continue to exit. However, Bitcoin shouldn't drop too much; this morning, the 4-hour level was already pointing to a W bottom, but it seems not very valid now, and we still need to observe. We also need to see if there will be an ETF supplementary drop after the US stock market opens tonight. The second coin is really weak, the exchange rate is not rebounding anymore, and the spike last Friday likely triggered on-chain liquidation. You might not believe Sun's calls, but there are things behind Sun's top escape! SOL's lowest was 176, I think buying below 185 is reasonable, as SOL's daily chart is already oversold.
This position has a good cost-performance ratio. If it drops further, it will be off the screen, you understand? In terms of knockoff coins: this weekend MEME had a small rebound, but I think MEME is still not in place. If you want to buy MEME, you need to keep an open mind. For example, PNUT's high was at 2.2, so I think 0.22 might be a reasonable bottom-buying point. Only with this kind of bottom-buying mindset can you really catch the bottom. This decline has highlighted several strong coins, particularly those backed by Trump's team. Except for LINK, which is slightly weaker, the others are still relatively strong.
Let's talk about ZEN. I feel that ZEN's growth potential is not very large, purely a personal subjective view. It's different from XRP; it doesn’t have such favorable logic and expectations to support it, so it can't be compared.
