The following is an analysis of key economic data and events on December 23, 2024:
UK's third quarter GDP year-on-year final value
As the sixth largest economy in the world, the economic recovery of the UK is of great concern. The market generally expects economic growth to slow down; if the data surpasses expectations, it will boost the pound and the stock market; on the contrary, if the data falls below expectations, it may raise concerns about the UK's economic outlook, putting pressure on the pound's exchange rate and potentially causing a decline in the stock market.
UK's third quarter current account
The current account reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the UK’s trade in goods and services, as well as investments with foreign countries. If the current account deficit widens, it will heighten market concerns about the devaluation of the British currency, which may keep financial markets cautious. The current market expectation is -227.5, with a previous value of -283.97. If the actual data performs better than expected, it would be positive for the pound; conversely, it would be negative for the pound.
Switzerland's December ZEW Investor Confidence Index
Switzerland's ZEW index reflects investors' confidence in the future economy. If this data rises, it indicates that the Swiss economy still possesses a certain level of resilience in a turbulent environment, which will support the Swiss franc; a decline, however, may trigger market concerns, putting pressure on the Swiss franc's exchange rate.
Canada's October GDP month-on-month rate
As an important global economy, Canada's GDP data will provide the market with firsthand information to assess the sustainability of its economic growth. If economic data performs strongly, it may boost the Canadian dollar and attract more capital inflow; if the data is poor, the Canadian dollar may face some downward pressure.
U.S. December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
U.S. consumer confidence is crucial for economic recovery. Changes in this index not only reflect consumer psychological expectations but may also impact the upcoming consumption season's economic performance. A strong value indicates that the economy will continue to improve, potentially supporting the U.S. dollar and the U.S. stock market; conversely, a weak value may trigger selling pressure in the market.
The Bank of Canada will release the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting
Meeting minutes often reveal the thoughts of central bank decision-makers and the potential direction of future monetary policy. Investors can understand the Bank of Canada's assessment of the economic situation, inflation expectations, and the likelihood of interest rate adjustments, which in turn can affect the Canadian dollar and the Canadian bond market.