In a bull market, the market generally rises, and retail investors are easily affected by FOMO (fear of missing out) and blindly buy in. They often ignore fundamental analysis and risk control, and even use leverage to magnify their returns.
But the short-term prosperity of the bull market masks potential risks. Once the market pulls back, overly optimistic retail investors will be caught off guard and suffer huge losses.
When faced with seemingly favorable conditions, people relax their vigilance and ignore the inherent uncertainty and the importance of risk control. Therefore, losses are not caused by the bull market itself, but are amplified by overconfidence and neglect of risk control.
When opportunities arise, of course, you can participate, but the key is to recognize your role. Are you an investor or a speculator? Value investors theoretically prefer bear markets because they can buy tokens at low prices. Speculators, on the other hand, need to understand that the most dangerous thing is mistaking speculation for investment.
Did Bitcoin fall below $100,000 to start a bear market? Do altcoins still have a bull market? Should altcoins be cleared out?
Why do many people come into this industry, constantly lose money, and find it getting worse and worse over the years? The reason is that they keep summarizing failed experiences.
Every loss has different experiences to summarize. The summaries are all of failed experiences, while the financial market changes in countless ways. Failed experiences can never be fully summarized.
Taking the recent half-year market as an example: Bitcoin fell from $73,000 to around $50,000. I didn’t sell during the first rebound, and I didn’t sell during the second rebound, concluding that: I shouldn’t hold on blindly.
After summarizing, Bitcoin sold near $70,000 for the third time, and as a result, it went straight to $80,000. Oh no, the experience just summarized was a mistake.
And then, when Bitcoin rises to $80,000, I think it will fall, and I continue to wait. As a result, it rises to $90,000, I still wait, and then it rises to $100,000 and I start summarizing, concluding that 'I should hold long, a bull market is coming, don’t miss out.'
As soon as I entered the market, oh no, it dropped again.
There are many failed experiences, for example, buying altcoins before and then seeing them not rise, concluding that 'there is no altcoin bull market,' selling the altcoins, and then seeing them rise again recently, followed by concluding 'altcoins are about to take off.' As soon as I enter the market, they directly get cut in half recently.
This is the consequence of believing that one has been in this circle long enough, experienced enough, and has gained enough experience.
Yes, there are indeed experiences, but those are all failed experiences, not how to succeed.
You are just summarizing after the fact that this position shouldn't have been entered, and that position should have been sold. Summarizing how to fail after the market has moved has no significance.
What should really be summarized?
What should be summarized is: I didn’t enter at this position, and if it rises afterwards, how can I determine that it has stopped falling to enter the market next time?
What should be summarized is: the market has dropped significantly, and I got stuck, but this position should have been sold because I didn’t identify it. I lost money. Next time, I should be able to identify such signals as sell signals so that I can sell in time and not get stuck.
There are countless failed experiences. Every cycle of bull and bear markets and every market will have different trading methods, leading to various reasons for failure. Summarizing the reasons for failure has no relation to making money.
DOGE market dynamics
Dogecoin (DOGE), as the leader of the memecoin industry, benefits from Elon Musk's strong support. Currently, the network is protected by a proof-of-work mechanism and has over 5.9 million on-chain holders.
Although the spot DOGE ETF application has not yet been submitted, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that Trump's presidency could set a precedent for this. If Paul Atkins becomes the SEC chairman, the approval probability of crypto ETFs will significantly increase. On-chain data shows that during the recent market decline, large investors bought over 250 million DOGE (worth approximately $77 million), and whale holdings increased to 1% of the circulating supply.
DOGE has dropped 30% in the past two weeks.
In terms of coin price, after Trump was elected and the leading figure Musk jointly took charge of the DOGE government efficiency department, Dogecoin followed along, soaring from less than $0.2 before the election to $0.475 in early December. However, it has recently shown signs of weakness, with a nearly 30% decline over the past 14 days, and at one point dropped to $0.267 on the 20th. As of writing, it is reported at $0.312, with a 3% increase in the last 24 hours.
If the DOGE ETF is really approved for listing in the U.S. in the future, it is expected to attract considerable capital inflow, and its price is likely to challenge the historical high of $1, which may also increase the interest of more institutions in applying for meme coin ETFs.
Why do altcoins not follow when BTC rises, but drop harder than anyone else when it falls!
Today's altcoins are more about: PPT innovation! Simply put, writing extravagant visions and then crazily dumping afterwards! Because too many coins are listed and their quality has declined, altcoins have become fragile!
The fundamental reason why altcoins drop so severely is:
When Bitcoin rises, more people buy altcoins, and the coin holders sell madly, continuously selling! Therefore, looking back, many altcoins did not rise as much as Bitcoin! The coin holders have too many chips in hand, and they keep selling, so how can the coin price rise!
It’s the same when prices drop! The coin holders only sell coins, don’t maintain the price, and when you try to bottom fish, they still unload! In the past, listing coins in the crypto circle wasn’t that easy; the holders cared a lot about the distribution and concentration of chips and emphasized controlling the market, and the exchange’s requirements were stricter!
In today's crypto circle, Binance alone has listed USUAL PENGU CAT VANA ME MOVE ORCA ACX, etc. in just one month!!!
Listing coins is too easy. The coin holders just need to sell, sell, sell. When this project is done, they just make a PPT to switch to the next one! With USDT and resources, listing coins is as easy as drinking water! Exchanges are also inactive! If they were forced to maintain the price with a stronger attitude, some project parties would have to protect it! Altcoins wouldn't fall so badly!
