Today is December 23, 2024, Monday. Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to decline, but altcoins have shown some resilience. Once the market stabilizes, altcoins should see a nice rebound. From the liquidation charts on exchanges, it appears that the long positions in the contract market have been almost fully liquidated. Even if Bitcoin falls to 85,000, it can only result in 1.17 billion USD in liquidations; conversely, if Bitcoin rises to 105,000, it could lead to 2.4 billion USD in liquidations for short positions. After despair comes hope; sharp declines are always followed by rebounds. In the short term, we should be watching the previous low of 92,000 USD for Bitcoin; as long as it doesn't break below that, I believe there is a high probability of a rebound.
From historical data, the period from January to April in the year following Bitcoin's halving tends to see good price increases, as was the case in 2017 and 2021. I believe this bull market will not be an exception, so it is difficult to find a bull market that turns around; cherish the recent corrections.
In this bull market, Ethereum is much weaker than Bitcoin. From the daily chart, Ethereum's candlestick has seen three consecutive bearish days and is trending towards a second retest of the previous low. In the short term, we should focus on the previous low support level of 3100. Even if it breaks that, a maximum pullback to around 3000 is likely. Ethereum's rise will not end easily; the decline is to set up for a better rise. A significant drop is necessary to wash out the weak hands, allowing the main players to lift the price more effectively. Therefore, those looking to buy the dip on Ethereum can do so in batches around and below 3100 USD. A sharp drop will lead to a rebound; most people's cost bases are in this range, and panic will cause many to sell. After this adjustment, Ethereum is expected to challenge the previous high resistance level of 3600, so cherish the opportunity to buy low!
Regarding altcoins, recently Sui and BGB have indeed been strong. As Bitcoin retested, the prices of these two coins have stabilized above 4 USD. Once Bitcoin stabilizes, I believe Sui and BGB are likely to break through 5 USD and set new historical highs. Therefore, in the short term, if either falls below 4 USD, it would be a good opportunity to buy in batches.
Yesterday, a rebound in Pnut drove an increase in meme coins such as Neiro, Pepe, and Act, which all saw a follow-up rebound. I must say that this round of altcoins has indeed been quite difficult, but we are about to enter January, and perseverance will lead to victory.
For those who have experienced the previous cycles of 312 and 94, this round of corrections shouldn't be too alarming because everyone knows that even if it doesn't rally now, it will definitely rally in the first quarter of next year. Moreover, Trump will officially take office in January, and before that, there will be a wave of significant speculation. Based on the current timeline, speculation is expected to begin from the end of this month to early January. Currently, the liquidation data from contracts shows that the amount of forced liquidations for long positions is gradually decreasing, and once long positions are almost exhausted, it should be time to lift the price and liquidate the short positions.
Many newcomers are worried that this round of correction is too much, and whether this bull market can only break even or not recover at all. In fact, we can refer to the rally from the beginning of this year to March and the one last month. As long as the market starts to rally, it can happen quickly; at the beginning of the year, it was basically a tenfold increase in a week. Recently, even XRP, with such a large market cap, has already quadrupled from the bottom. For some smaller market cap assets, once the market starts, a tenfold increase is not a problem, so there is no need to worry about not making money. Even in a downtrend, the market makers can't sell; without trading volume and depth, everyone can rest assured. The winter solstice has passed; how far can spring be?
Finally, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, I personally believe that there shouldn't be any major negative news in the market for the foreseeable future. The market is already prepared for no interest rate cuts in January and March next year. As long as there isn't any new negative news, the downside potential for Bitcoin is relatively limited.
When market liquidity is insufficient, it completely depends on market sentiment. As long as someone sells, the price may continue to fall, so no one can predict where the bottom is. We cannot time the lowest point; we can only lower our average holding cost by buying in batches. This method can help us find a relatively low price.
