Is XRP overvalued? This has been a widely discussed topic in the market since the altcoin surge in November.
While some believe that the rise in XRP's price will gradually reverse, there has not been a significant adjustment thus far. However, according to on-chain analysis, compared to the overall market trend, XRP's price may soon be overvalued.
Ripple tokens face significant risks
About a month ago, XRP's price first broke through the $1 mark, which drew widespread attention in the market. Some analysts believed this was just a false breakout, but this view has proven incorrect as XRP's current trading price has soared to $2.36.
Despite predictions suggesting that XRP's price could rise to $5, some on-chain indicators indicate that this target may not be easily achievable. A key indicator consistent with the discussion in this article is the network value to transactions (NVT) ratio.
The NVT ratio measures the growth rate of an asset's market capitalization relative to its trading volume. When the NVT ratio declines, it indicates that the growth rate of transactions on the network is faster than the growth of market capitalization, which is a bullish signal suggesting that the price may be undervalued.
On the other hand, the surge in the NVT ratio indicates that XRP's market capitalization is growing at a faster rate, pushing it closer to higher valuation areas. According to Santiment data (as shown in the chart), XRP's NVT ratio has soared to a high of 477.
Another indicator reflecting this market sentiment is the divergence between price and daily active addresses (DAA). DAA measures the relationship between user participation and price growth. When DAA increases, it indicates more user participation supporting price increases, which is typically a bullish signal.
However, as of the writing of this article, the price of the DAA divergence has decreased by 326.13%, indicating that the number of wallets interacting with XRP has decreased. If this trend continues, XRP's price may fall below the $2 support level.
XRP Price Prediction: Momentum Remains Bearish
On the 4-hour candlestick chart, XRP's price attempted to break through $2.40 but encountered strong resistance around $2.35, causing the price to retreat to $2.31. According to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, the 12-period and 26-period exponential moving averages have fallen into negative territory.
This bearish signal indicates that XRP is currently in a bearish momentum. If this trend continues downward, XRP's price may further dip to $2.05.
So, is XRP overvalued? Based on current analysis, there seems to be a possibility of this. With strong bearish momentum, XRP could drop to $1.90.
However, if the market experiences buying pressure that drives demand up, XRP may also rise against the trend, breaking through current resistance, potentially climbing as high as $2.73.