Written by: Brayden Lindrea, CoinTelegraph
Translated by: Deng Tong, Jinse Finance
Asset management firm VanEck stated that if the U.S. establishes a reserve of 1 million Bitcoins as proposed in Senator Cynthia Lummis's bill, the U.S. could reduce its national debt by 35% over the next 24 years.
VanEck estimates that by 2049, Bitcoin's CAGR will reach 25%, hitting $42.3 million, while the CAGR of U.S. national debt will reach 5%, increasing from $37 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz stated in a report on December 20: "By 2049, this reserve could account for 35% of national debt, offsetting approximately $42 trillion in debt."
It is expected that from 2025 to 2049, U.S. national debt will increase as Bitcoin reserves grow. Source: VanEck
"Optimistic" projections suggest that Bitcoin's 25% compound annual growth rate will start from a price point of $200,000 in 2025. Bitcoin's current trading price is $95,360, needing to more than double to reach the starting point pointed out by VanEck.
The rise in Bitcoin's price to $42.3 million means it accounts for about 18% of global financial assets—far higher than its current share of about 0.22% in today's $90 trillion market.
The estimated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for U.S. national debt and Bitcoin reserve holdings, as well as Bitcoin's value, is 25%. Source: VanEck
The new administration of Donald Trump proposed the idea of a Bitcoin reserve, which pushed Bitcoin prices above six figures, but Senator Lummis’s bill has yet to be reviewed by the Senate or House of Representatives.
Strike founder and CEO Jack Mallers claimed earlier this month that Trump could issue an executive order on his first day in office designating Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
According to the Lummis bill, the U.S. could repurpose its 198,100 Bitcoins held due to asset seizure, while the remaining 801,900 Bitcoins could be financed through emergency support functions, selling part of its $455 billion gold reserves in exchange for Bitcoin, or both—none of which would require printing money or taxpayer funds, VanEck noted.
Sigel and Frankovitz stated that the adoption of Bitcoin at the state, institutional, and corporate levels in the U.S. will also boost the estimated compound annual growth rate of Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded fund issuers.
Sigel explained in a post on X on December 21 that the member nations of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) could also influence Bitcoin's price, leading to its increasing use as currency.
They pointed out: "For countries looking to avoid a parabolic increase in dollar sanctions, Bitcoin is likely to be widely used as a settlement currency for global trade."
