Bitcoin reached its historical high of $108,353 on the 17th of this month, followed by a wave of rise and fall. In the following three days, the price continued to decline, dropping to 92,232 at 7 PM on the 20th, with a high-low difference of $16,121 and a drop of 15%. This movement is considered a significant retracement in a bull market. Currently, the daily support is above the 90,000 mark, near a horizontal support level around early December. This area has seen price fluctuations for more than 20 days, and the support is relatively strong. As the market has undergone sufficient retracement, with selling pressure released adequately and buy orders continuing to increase, the price has good stopping ability.
Of course, the pullback does not affect the expert's higher expectations for Bitcoin and will not be impacted by short-term retracements. Because Bitcoin's holdings and audience are vast, it is the most decentralized and hardest to control currency, filled with the most loyal believers. At the same time, the expert's maximum retracement expectation for Bitcoin remains at 85,000 (previously the expert mentioned 86,000, but accurately refers to the lowest point of 85,000 during the continuous spike rebound on the night of November 12). As long as it does not drop below this position, the expert believes that the overall health of the bull market will still remain unaffected.
From the daily chart perspective, the daily line has already broken below the MA 30 support at 98,600, and there is still a certain distance from the MA 60 upward channel guiding line at 89,500. The expert believes that as long as the daily MA 60 upward line is maintained, there is no need to panic too much. At the same time, after Bitcoin had six consecutive weeks of rising, it recorded a bearish candle for the first time last week, and the overall weekly indicator has shifted from a severely overbought state to an overbought state, indicating that pressure has been released to a certain extent. Of course, this week still needs to guard against the continuation of the bearish weekly state, where the price may rise first and then fall. We must maintain a respectful attitude towards the final support level of 85,000. If it falls to this position without quickly recovering, the trend will become complex and difficult to judge.
Currently, for Bitcoin to break the ongoing downward trend, the price needs to reclaim the $100,000 mark, meaning it must surpass the highest rebound level of 99,540 at 3 PM on the 21st, which indicates that the peak of the rebound has moved up, the downward trend will end, and Bitcoin will continue its journey to new highs.
Even though Bitcoin has experienced a significant pullback, last week, the net purchase volume of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF reached 13,699 coins, far exceeding the weekly mining output of 3,150 coins. This indicates that the main driving force in the market is still active, and the momentum for the bulls has not extinguished. Currently, there are still more than 20 days until the new president takes office, and the market is still full of limitless imagination. The new president has made a public commitment regarding Bitcoin, and there won't be significant policy changes after taking office, with long-term positive outlook still existing. At present, due to the increasing number of institutions, funds, and listed companies involved, the long-term support for Bitcoin's price will remain strong. The reduction in market liquidity has caused the selling pressure to not continue, thus the expert believes that Bitcoin's adjustment depth is sufficient and expects it to oscillate several times within the range of 90,000 to 100,000 before continuing a strong upward journey. Since bull market time is precious, the adjustment speed is usually fast, and the entire process is expected to be completed within two weeks, after which it will continue to reach new highs.
Currently, mainstream altcoins have also experienced significant daily retracement, with a 40% drop from the peak. The expert believes that for such a decline, it is still suitable for holding large positions in spot trading while waiting. Due to the large drop, the main force needs to further accumulate, and prices will show repeated rises and falls after going higher. After all, many quality coins have not yet shown high-level oscillation selling actions, and the main force's lifting plan is incomplete. The expert believes that after price consolidation, there will still be a wave of new highs. Therefore, everyone needs to remain patient during this process. Of course, to increase some profits and reduce risks, one can take advantage of clear price rebounds to partially take profits and exit, and wait for the price to continue retracing near the bottom support before buying again. This can increase profits while reducing position risk and optimizing holding cost prices.
Now, we need to focus on Bitcoin's movement to break through the $100,000 mark. A bullish rise will begin, considering the possibility of a false drop below the 90,000 mark, with 89,500 as the boundary bottom. This is a good time for Bitcoin bullish contracts and remaining spot positions to enter the market simultaneously.
Risk warning: Due to significant market fluctuations, it is not recommended for everyone to participate in short-term large position contracts, focusing mainly on safe spot trading.$BTC 
