Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser2010)
In the past week, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback, dropping about 15% from its historical high of $108,300 to around $92,000. Currently, as market sentiment gradually stabilizes, the Bitcoin price has recovered to around $96,000, entering a consolidation phase.
The recent drop has severely impacted altcoins, with many token prices even falling back to levels seen before October, erasing the 'Trump effect' gains since Trump was elected president of the United States. Nevertheless, with the Christmas holidays approaching, many believe that the 'Christmas crash' will further exacerbate the market downturn.
However, as 2025 approaches, a series of positive factors such as Trump's inauguration and the Bitcoin strategic reserve plan are building up, and the cryptocurrency industry is still expected to welcome a new 'dawn moment.'
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the views of industry insiders, institutional buying overviews, and some on-chain activities in this article to provide readers with a more comprehensive perspective of the market.
Overview of industry opinions: mostly bullish, a few bearish.
From the perspective of mainstream industry insiders, most believe that the current BTC market pullback is only temporary, mainly due to the rapid breakthrough of the new high around $108,000. At the same time, altcoin holders are eager to sell, causing the market to fluctuate downward. As 2024 is about to end and 2025 is approaching, BTC is expected to continue reaching new highs.
CZ: Waiting for new headlines, Bitcoin continues to hit new highs.
Binance co-founder CZ recently stated that he is waiting for new headlines as Bitcoin continues to set new highs. Previously, CZ tweeted four years ago that BTC 'crashed' from $101,000 to $85,000, waiting for news headlines to report.
Cathie Wood: BTC will become scarcer than gold due to institutional demand.
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that due to institutional demand, Bitcoin 'has become more scarce than gold,' and she previously predicted that by 2030, the BTC price would exceed $1 million.
Bitwise CIO: BTC has three unstoppable sources of demand, including ETFs, MicroStrategy, and others.
On December 19, Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed out three 'unstoppable' sources of demand for Bitcoin: ETFs, Microstrategy, and the government itself potentially becoming buyers of Bitcoin. He added, 'Ultimately, it comes down to supply and demand. Too much demand, not enough supply, so I believe the price will be higher in 2025.'
Trader Peter Brandt: BTC may continue to rise, with a near-term price target of $125,000.
After recently dropping below $91,000, BTC experienced a strong rebound over the weekend, currently slightly retreating to around $96,000. During this process, veteran trader Peter Brandt reaffirmed his bullish view on BTC, stating it may continue to rise in the future. Additionally, other on-chain indicators also suggest good future momentum for BTC. In a recent analysis, Brandt mentioned that BTC could reach $108,358 in the coming days.
Peter Brandt's K-line analysis.
However, he also cited technical charts warning that BTC price may retrace to $76,614 during the upward trend and added, 'This is not a prediction,' pointing out the risks present in the market. He stated that these analyses only reflect 'possibilities, not probabilities, and not certainties.' Additionally, he recently set a BTC price target of $125,000.
Lark Davis: The current pullback is not the 'end of the bull market'; the market still has ample fuel.
Crypto KOL and industry analyst Lark Davis analyzed historical data and believes that the current cryptocurrency market pullback is not the 'end of the bull market.' He stated, 'In December 2020, after a 77% increase from October to November, BTC fell by 12%. Subsequently, it rose from $17,000 to $41,000 in the next 23 days (an increase of 136%). A similar situation is happening now; Bitcoin has fallen by 13% after a significant rise in Q4. This does not mean it is the bottom; we may see another 10-15% correction. But Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market still have ample fuel.'
Analyst: Bitcoin's current pullback is highly correlated with Coinbase's sell-off since October 26.
The recent price drop of BTC marks a sharp shift in market sentiment, with market sentiment rapidly shifting from extreme bullishness to uncertainty and caution. As altcoins suffer severe losses, Bitcoin's pullback has raised concerns about the sustainability of the recent rally.
Top analyst Maartunn recently emphasized that this adjustment coincides with the most severe sell-off activity on Coinbase since October 26 (when BTC was trading at $66,000). The increase in selling pressure clearly indicates a shift in the market from bullish to one filled with fear and hesitation. The combination of reduced buying activity and increased selling pressure suggests the market is struggling to maintain upward momentum. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently testing the $92,000 threshold for support.
Bitfinex: Bitcoin may reach $200,000 by mid-2025 and will maintain a moderate pullback trend.
Bitfinex analysts recently stated in a market report that due to strong institutional demand, Bitcoin's downturn in 2025 will be brief, predicting the best scenario is that by June 2025, the Bitcoin price will double, with the lowest price estimate being 'reaching $145,000 by mid-2025 and potentially rising to $200,000 under favorable conditions.'
Analysts state: 'We believe that due to institutional inflows, any adjustments in 2025 will remain moderate.' They noted that while Bitcoin is expected to experience volatility in the first quarter of 2025, the 'broader trend' indicates that its price will continue to rise, thanks to the continuous inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the increasing global and institutional adoption rates.
CryptoQuant CEO: This is not a traditional altcoin season, but an independent market for individual tokens.
On December 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that Bitcoin's market share fell by 6% (with XRP contributing 3%), but it has now begun to recover. Currently, only a few altcoins attract new liquidity, and the capital rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins is limited.
He believes this is not a traditional altcoin season, but an independent market for individual high-performing tokens.
Trader Eugene: Altcoin investors are eager to sell spot assets, the market may enter a longer consolidation phase.
Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio expressed his views on the altcoin market, stating, 'Altcoins tend to rapidly fall back to these levels within 48 hours after forming wick lows, indicating that investors are extremely anxious about holding spot assets and eager to sell. The market may enter a longer adjustment phase or quickly decline in a short period.'
Analyst: Seeing significant pullbacks in a cryptocurrency bull market is 'very typical.'
Earlier, Bitcoin had just set a new historical high of over $108,000, and the recent downturn in the crypto market had a more significant impact on altcoins like Ethereum and Dogecoin. Last Thursday, a group of U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin ended a consecutive 15-day inflow, recording an outflow of $680 million, highlighting the shift in market sentiment.
Strahinja Savic, the data and analysis director at FRNT Financial, stated that seeing such significant pullbacks in a cryptocurrency bull market is 'very typical,' while QCP Capital noted in a report that the fundamental reason for the sell-off is the market's 'overly optimistic' positions.
Strong buying: Continuous inflow into BTC ETFs, with both nations and enterprises following suit.
From the perspective of market fundamentals, institutional trading is still in the 'strike zone,' with funds from U.S. BTC ETFs, El Salvador, U.S. listed companies, and Japanese listed companies continuously purchasing BTC, and the holding costs are not far from the spot BTC price. Institutions are relatively optimistic about BTC's performance in the future.
Bitcoin Cap Table: ETFs, the government, and MSTR currently hold 31% of all Bitcoin, doubling from last year.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju released an update on the Bitcoin holding pie chart, stating that ETFs, the government, and MSTR now hold 31% of all Bitcoin, up from 14% last year.
BTC holding pie chart information.
The trading volume of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF in week 50 reached $26 billion, with an inflow of $17.5 billion so far in Q4.
According to Trader T's monitoring, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF's net inflow in week 50 was $463 million, with a trading volume of $26 billion. Additionally:
So far in Q4, the inflow amount to Bitcoin ETFs is $17.5 billion (the best quarter);
BlackRock's IBIT inflow amount is $1.452 billion;
Other ETF outflows amount to $989 million.
El Salvador increases its BTC purchase rate, with a mid-term goal of adding 20,000 BTC.
On December 21, according to Bitcoin Magazine, senior Bitcoin advisor to the president of El Salvador, Max Keiser, revealed: 'President Bukele has increased the daily Bitcoin purchase rate, with a mid-term goal of adding 20,000 Bitcoin.' On December 22, El Salvador's wallet address increased its holdings by about 11 BTC (worth $1.06 million) for its strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Previously, El Salvador reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to obtain a $1.4 billion credit line, but it was required to 'reduce Bitcoin risk'; an IMF spokesperson, when asked about Bitcoin's legal tender status in El Salvador, stated that the use of Bitcoin would be voluntary.
In the latest news, Stacy Herbert, the director of the Bitcoin office in El Salvador, clarified that even after reaching an agreement, the country will continue to 'accelerate' its purchase of Bitcoin as part of its strategic Bitcoin reserve strategy. Herbert also explained that Bitcoin will remain the country's legal tender, and the government will continue to sponsor several cryptocurrency-focused educational programs. The Bitcoin office reported that the '1 BTC per day' purchase plan will continue.
Moreover, the country made additional purchases, increasing its holdings by 30 BTC over the past 7 days and 53 BTC over the past 30 days.
Australia's Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF holds 272 BTC.
As of December 19, Australia's Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) held 272 BTC, with an AUM of approximately $44.345 million.
Australia's BTC ETF continues to increase holdings.
Statistics: At least 10 companies are currently adopting or considering adopting MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy.
Statistics show that at least 10 companies are currently adopting or considering adopting MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, including:
AI company Genius Group: Currently holds 294 BTC;
Pickup solution provider Worksport: The company's board approved an initial purchase of $5 million worth of BTC and XRP;
Amazon: Shareholders proposed that the company's board evaluate the potential benefits of adding Bitcoin to its financial strategy;
MicroStrategy: Currently holds 439,000 BTC;
MARA Holdings: Currently holds 44,394 BTC;
Tesla: Currently holds 9,720 BTC;
Coinbase: Currently holds 9,480 BTC as part of its reserves;
Hut 8 Mining Corp: Currently holds 10,096 BTC;
Block Inc.: Currently holds 8,027 BTC;
OneMedNet: Currently holds 34 BTC.
Among them, Bitcoin mining company MARA previously disclosed that it raised $1.925 billion through convertible notes in November and December and purchased 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529, worth approximately $1.53 billion. It also repurchased approximately $263 million of its existing convertible notes maturing in 2026 and expects to use the remaining proceeds to purchase more Bitcoin. Hut 8 surpassed Tesla on December 19 to become the fourth publicly traded company holding over 10,000 BTC.
Japanese listed company Metaplanet increased its holdings by 619.7 BTC.
On December 23, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced an additional purchase of 619.7 BTC, totaling 9.5 billion yen (approximately $60.68 million), with an average purchase price of about $97,800; its total BTC holdings increased to 1,761.98 BTC.
Increase holding statement document.
Glassnode: The severity of Bitcoin pullbacks in bull market trends has decreased, with most corrections around 25%.
Glassnode officials previously stated, 'Interestingly, as the market grows, the severity of Bitcoin's pullbacks in bull market uptrends has decreased. The deepest pullback during this cycle was -32% (on August 5, 2024), while most corrections were only about a 25% drop from previous highs, reflecting demand for spot ETFs and growing institutional interest.'
Glassnode tends to find that the severity of pullbacks is gradually decreasing.
On-chain activity: The number of wallet addresses is increasing, dormant addresses are awakening, and long-term holders are exiting.
On-chain activity shows a polarization phenomenon: on one hand, the number of holding addresses for mainstream cryptocurrencies has increased to varying degrees, starting at least from 25%; on the other hand, ancient BTC addresses that have been dormant for over 10 years are also awakening, with many long-term BTC holders gradually exiting the market.
Over the past two years, the number of non-empty wallets for BTC and ETH has grown by 27% and 47%, respectively.
Santiment stated that the number of cryptocurrency holders has significantly increased over the past two years. Here are the number of non-empty wallets for the top four cryptocurrencies ranked by market capitalization:
BTC: 54.7 million (+27%); ETH: 134.9 million (+47%); USDT: 6.57 million (+66%); XRP: 5.75 million (+28%).
Analyst: As of December 20, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges this month.
On December 20, crypto analyst AIi stated that as of now, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in December, and this trend seems to be continuing.
Exchange BTC continues to flow out.
Since September, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold 1 million Bitcoins.
In mid-December, long-term Bitcoin holders had begun selling large amounts of Bitcoin, reducing their total holdings from about 14.2 million in mid-September to about 13.2 million. The current trading price of Bitcoin is 13% lower than the historic high of around $108,000, which is the highest level since Trump won the U.S. election in early November.
According to Glassnode data, on December 19, long-term Bitcoin holders sold nearly 70,000 BTC, marking the fourth largest single-day sell-off of the year.
Recently, multiple addresses holding over $20 million that had been dormant for years were activated.
Bitcoin fell below $96,000 on December 22, down about 11% since breaking $108,000 on December 17, 2024.
Meanwhile, at Bitcoin network block height 875,560, a wallet that had been dormant since July 25, 2015, was activated and transferred 44.99 BTC, marking its first activity since creation. The same user actually transferred a total of 59.99 BTC, moving funds from three old P2PKH addresses to two P2WPKH wallets. Of these, 44.99 BTC was from 2015, when the BTC trading price was $290. Then, after 43 blocks, several wallets dormant since 2017 began to become active, transferring small amounts of Bitcoin (0.00000547 BTC) at block 875,603.
This model of sending Bitcoin fragments cleverly conceals larger-scale transfers. Once the satoshis are settled, a newly minted P2WPKH wallet will receive 99.999 BTC, valued at approximately $9.7 million at current prices. On Saturday, a wallet that had been dormant for 12 years was activated and transferred 104.99 BTC, which at the time was only worth $11, totaling $1,200. Today, those BTC are worth over $10 million. This transfer also migrated from an old P2PKH address to a new P2WPKH address.
Exchange BTC continues to flow out: Coinbase bleeding accelerates.
Coinglass data shows that the current Coinbase Pro Bitcoin wallet balance is 733,076.34 BTC, ranking first among CEXs; 16.69 BTC flowed in over the past 24 hours, 14,661.50 BTC flowed out over the past 7 days, and 70,185.16 BTC flowed out over the past 30 days.
Binance's Bitcoin wallet balance is 571,802.93 BTC, with an inflow of 1,458.46 BTC over the past 24 hours, 4,199.11 BTC inflow over the past 7 days, and an outflow of 10,412.79 BTC over the past 30 days.
