#本周微策略是否继续增持BTC？
Against the backdrop of continued volatility in global financial markets and uneven pace of economic recovery, HSBC's forecast that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025 is like a stone thrown into a calm lake, causing ripples and attracting great attention and in-depth discussion from all walks of life.
As an old and important institution in the global financial field, HSBC's prediction is by no means groundless. On the one hand, from the long-term trend of macroeconomic data, although the current US economy has shown resilience in certain periods, the potential growth fatigue has already emerged. After experiencing a phased increase in GDP growth, it faces multiple headwinds such as insufficient consumption momentum and slowing business investment. For example, the consumer confidence index has fluctuated and declined recently, and people's concerns about the future economic outlook have prompted a quiet increase in their willingness to save, which in turn has suppressed the expansion of the consumer market. This will gradually drag down the overall economic growth rhythm and create endogenous momentum for interest rate cuts.
On the other hand, inflation trends are the key anchor target of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. After the impact of high inflation in the early stage, the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike policy has begun to show results, and inflation data has steadily declined. However, the shadow of deflation risk is quietly approaching. As energy prices tend to stabilize and supply chain bottlenecks continue to be unblocked, the pressure of price increases has been greatly reduced. If the subsequent inflation rate falls excessively, approaches or even falls into the deflation range, interest rate cuts will become a powerful weapon to stimulate the economy and maintain price stability. This is undoubtedly an important consideration for HSBC to make this forecast.
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