Author: Brayden Lindrea, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Deng Tong, Jinse Finance
Asset management company VanEck stated that if the U.S. establishes a reserve of 1 million Bitcoins according to the bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the U.S. could reduce its national debt by 35% over the next 24 years.
VanEck estimates that by 2049, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Bitcoin will reach 25%, reaching $42.3 million, while the CAGR of U.S. national debt will reach 5%, increasing from $37 trillion in early 2025 to $119.3 trillion.
Matthew Sigel, Director of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz stated in a report on December 20: "By 2049, this reserve could account for 35% of the national debt, offsetting about $42 trillion in debt."
It is expected that U.S. national debt will increase alongside the growth of Bitcoin reserves from 2025 to 2049. Source: VanEck
"Optimistic" forecasts suggest that Bitcoin's 25% CAGR will start from a price point of $200,000 in 2025. Bitcoin is currently trading at $95,360 and would need to more than double to reach the starting point indicated by VanEck.
A Bitcoin price of $42.3 million means it would account for about 18% of global financial assets—far higher than its current 0.22% share of the $900 trillion market.
It is estimated that the compound annual growth rate of U.S. national debt, Bitcoin reserves, and Bitcoin value will be 25%. Source: VanEck
The new government of Donald Trump proposed the idea of Bitcoin reserves, which pushed the price of Bitcoin to over six figures, but Senator Lummis's bill has yet to be reviewed by the Senate or the House of Representatives.
Jack Mallers, founder and CEO of Strike, claimed earlier this month that Trump might issue an executive order on his first day in office designating Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
According to the Lummis Bill, the U.S. could reutilize the 198,100 Bitcoins it holds due to asset seizures, while the remaining 801,900 Bitcoins could be financed through emergency support, selling a portion of its $455 billion gold reserve in exchange for Bitcoin, or both—none of which would require printing money or taxpayer funds, VanEck pointed out.
Sigel and Frankovitz stated that the adoption of Bitcoin at the state, institutional, and corporate levels in the U.S. will also boost the estimated CAGR for Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded fund issuers.
Sigel explained in a December 21 X post that the member countries of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) could also influence the price of Bitcoin, leading to its increasing use as a currency.
They pointed out: "For countries looking to avoid a parabolic increase in dollar sanctions, Bitcoin is likely to be widely used as a settlement currency in global trade."
