Recently, it's been tough. I believe many friends thought that the interest rate cut would lead to a surge, but then old Powell announced a reduction in the number of rate cuts next year. Additionally, a reporter deliberately asked him whether the Federal Reserve would purchase $BTC as a strategic reserve. Of course, they won't! Asking questions with known answers feels like a conspiracy theory, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar... These are side notes; I've also incurred significant losses, but the real market hasn't arrived yet. I hope everyone still holds onto hope.

Currently, after the sharp drop of $BTC , it has rebounded directly. In terms of movement, it's not very normal; a normal movement should show some fluctuations or a spike recovery. Compared to yesterday's U.S. stock market gap filling, it now seems like it was forcibly pushed up by the U.S. stock market, stepping on the bears along the way. Looking at the larger scale, the POC position is around 97500. We can deduce that the POC is the most densely traded area. Long positions that got trapped initially would want to sell if they see the market rebound, but if it goes up and they feel like they made a wrong judgment, they might buy back in. Therefore, we need to wait and see if this situation can continue to rise.

On the daily chart, the MACD crossed golden and then immediately crossed dead. We can interpret this to mean that there aren't many long positions trapped on the right side. If, like during Trump's time, the golden cross lasted so long and suddenly crossed dead, more trapped longs would panic and stop-loss, causing the price to drop even lower. Thankfully, the current situation isn't like that.

Looking at the smaller scale, I believe we're still just experiencing a rebound. It is indeed very strong, and altcoins have also rebounded, but based on the yellow circle I've marked, BTC must break through the previous high and create a new higher high before a healthy pullback (to see if there's a chance to reach 99937 on the liquidation map). Only then would I consider this a change in the market framework. Moreover, this breakthrough must be gradual; if it breaks through and then immediately falls back, I would think it might challenge the lows again.

I update infrequently, hoping that friends who may feel anxious after reading this can understand the situation and feel better emotionally. I still hold expectations for the market, and I will update when there are analyses worth sharing.