As of the time of this writing, Bitcoin's price is: $95,000, having fallen below the MA30, this important short-term support line, which indicates that the third sub-wave of the fifth wave of Bitcoin has ended on December 17th, and we are currently in the adjustment wave phase of the fourth sub-wave.
The adjustment wave is usually structured as A-B-C three waves. The A wave of the fourth sub-wave has either been completed or is nearing completion. After the completion of the A wave, there will be a B wave rebound, which may bounce back to the MA30 level. Following the completion of the B wave rebound will be the C wave decline. The end point of the C wave may be support level 1: 90800 and support level 2: 85000.
The first round of Bitcoin's decline has temporarily come to an end, and we are now in a high-level fluctuation waiting for a new direction. The market has entered a state of overselling in the short term (overselling means that it may not stop falling, but it can bounce back). It is not easy to fall short-term and will not accelerate the downward trend. While the bears have won, the manipulators will also celebrate, causing the market's decline rate to slow down, allowing the bulls to recover some losses.
In the short term, we need to observe ETH and BTC, altcoins and ETH, to understand the market through the comparison of declines. In the medium term, we have not seen a bottom yet, but we should be happy; coins that have halved in value are more appealing to buy.
What we need to do now is to refrain from making hasty moves, not to switch to coins that are rising. Instead, we should hold onto those that haven't risen.
My investment mindset is very stable: the worst outcome is zero. If I can accept this, who in the crypto circle can hurt me?
What is human nature?
Human nature is that in a bear market, people think Bitcoin is too expensive and believe it won't multiply much, then turn around and buy altcoins. When they see Bitcoin soaring, they start regretting not having invested fully in Bitcoin and question the altcoin season. Later, when they sell altcoins, various altcoins go on a wild dance... To succeed in investing, one must understand human nature and go against it. No one can invest successfully by chance; even the simplest strategy of holding steady is something only a few can stick to for 4 years.
Many fans are asking which will rise next? Which will fall?
I fear only heaven knows, but whatever you do, don't keep switching back and forth, and definitely don't chase highs or sell lows, that's a big taboo! Offenders will face severe consequences! (from the market) Investing requires a certain level of composure. As long as your composure is strong, even Satoshi Nakamoto would have to listen to you. In the end: hold tight, don't switch if it doesn't rise! The altcoin season is coming soon!
The Federal Reserve and Japan's monetary policy meetings have all been announced. Next, we are left with the Christmas and New Year period, which has little liquidity. In January, Trump may return to the White House, potentially pushing related legislation and affecting the future direction of the crypto market. At the same time, FTX compensation and the resumption of trading for U.S. ETFs are also expected to bring new capital inflows in January, with a forecasted market recovery. Therefore, the time window from late December to early January is a key period for us to focus on. Perhaps starting today is a good time to bottom-fish strong altcoins!