BitMEX founder warns: Bitcoin may plummet when Trump takes office
Bitcoin entered a correction after the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations. As of this morning (12/20), it once fell below US$96,000, which cooled down the excitement that had previously reached 108,000 US dollars. However, as early as a few days ago, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes warned about the market’s optimistic expectations.
In the latest (Trump Truth) blog article, Hayes pointed out that the current market expectations for the Trump administration’s cryptocurrency policy are too high, and the actual implementation of the policy may be significantly different from expectations:
I don't think the market realizes how limited the time is for Trump to actually accomplish anything. The market believes Trump and his team can achieve economic and political miracles immediately.
He further explained that since most elected officials will start campaigning for the midterm elections in November 2026 by the end of 2025, this means Trump actually has only a year to implement meaningful policy changes.
When the market finally realizes that Trump will have at most a year to implement policy changes after taking office on January 20, it will lead to a sharp sell-off in cryptocurrencies and other Trump-related stocks.
Hayes family office plans to reduce positions in advance.
Hayes predicts that the cryptocurrency market will experience a sharp decline around Trump's inauguration, and his family office-managed investment fund, Maelstrom, plans to clear some positions in advance, hoping to buy back at a lower price in the first half of 2025.
Although he also pointed out that long-term investors are underinvested in the remaining phase of the bull market, and many holders often exit too early, if the upward trend can persist until January 20, Hayes would be willing to admit failure, lick his wounds, and return to the bull market.
The above is a selection of Hayes's article; for the full text, please see:
How to buy after Trump takes office? BitMEX founder reveals the best investment method: seize the opportunity to buy at the bottom.
Trump is expected to bring Bitcoin and DeFi into the mainstream market.
Although Hayes maintains a cautious stance, according to (Cointelegraph) reports, many analysts predict that Trump's cryptocurrency policy changes are likely to bring Bitcoin and the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector into the mainstream market.
Since Trump's election, the cryptocurrency market has entered a massive upward trend, with Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 mark for the first time in early December.
Matrixport predicts that Bitcoin will have a 'strong start' in 2025, and many investors are likely to look back and think about why they didn't buy more Bitcoin at that time.
However, Hayes does not believe that the United States will quickly start building Bitcoin national reserves like other countries.
Although Trump's policies may drive up Bitcoin prices, it could merely be a political tactic aimed at boosting the Bitcoin-to-dollar price to strengthen the dollar's advantage over other countries.
He believes that politicians are more likely to use newly created dollars to fund programs or benefits that attract voters, especially with another election approaching.
In addition to Trump, investors should also pay attention to the movements of enterprise-level Bitcoin giant MicroStrategy.
Foreign media (Protos) previously pointed out that market rumors suggest MicroStrategy may enter a lock-up period in January 2025, suspending the issuance of stocks and convertible bonds to purchase more Bitcoin, which may also put pressure on the market.
Further reading:
MicroStrategy pours $17.5 billion into Bitcoin! Economists criticize: it's basically a Ponzi scheme.
[Disclaimer] The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own risk.
'Bitcoin surges and then falls back! Crypto tycoon warns: this time could see another major crash, will reduce positions in advance.' This article was first published in 'Crypto City.'
