Market sentiment in the cryptocurrency space has fallen into panic selling. Has the bull market ended?

1. Has the bull market ended? The more chaotic the market, the more we need to stay calm. Here are my personal thoughts on the market situation during this time:

The main reason for the rise since November 6th is the positive expectations for comprehensive cryptocurrency policies brought by Trump's victory. The continued rise next year mainly depends on the more favorable policies regarding cryptocurrencies after Trump takes office, including a more relaxed regulatory framework, BTC strategic reserves, etc. This main storyline has not changed, so it is highly likely that the bull market will continue. But we must also pay attention to the degree of expectation for the realization of favorable cryptocurrency policies after Trump takes office, which could potentially lead to the end of the bull market.

2. Why has BTC dropped in the past two days?

The direct reason is that last night's statement from the Federal Reserve was more hawkish than the market expected. However, at this level, the market has long anticipated a reduction in interest rate cuts by 2025, and this time the dot plot forecast is only slightly less than market expectations by one time. Logically, this should not lead to such a severe pullback. If it has occurred, it can only be attributed to the market's excessive panic combined with a chain reaction caused by some large holders' positions being liquidated. But past experiences have shown that panic sell-offs will eventually rebound.

3. What's wrong with altcoins? Will there still be an altcoin season?

Altcoins have been the hardest hit these past few days. In the last couple of days, while Bitcoin rose, altcoins did not rise and even fell. However, if we look back at the surge in early November, Bitcoin initially rose alone, draining the market, leaving a trail of sorrow. But once Bitcoin breaks through key levels, funds overflow, and altcoins begin to perform. Therefore, as long as Bitcoin can maintain its upward trend, there will definitely be an altcoin season. Because profit-taking funds will inevitably overflow; this is human nature and the essence of any financial market. We see that even in strong markets like the U.S. stock market, when the NASDAQ rises significantly, small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 will also catch up.

4. When will the altcoin season come?

Once Bitcoin breaks through key price levels and takes a temporary break to consolidate, altcoins will explode. Currently, it is highly likely that we should be at a key point. Previously it was 100,000; the next should be 110,000, 120,000, 130,000, etc. If we expect this bull market to peak at 150,000, then there are still four opportunities for altcoin explosions, but the risks become greater as we move further along.

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