$BTC
On December 19, Bitcoin prices suffered a heavy blow, falling below the $100,000 mark, reaching a low of $96,789 at one point.
From a technical analysis perspective
According to data from market research firm Fairlead Strategies, Bitcoin flashed three bullish signals after standing above the $100,000 mark late last week, with medium- to long-term momentum indicators shifting from neutral to bullish. The daily moving average indicator is slightly close to a buy signal, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) issued a buy signal on Tuesday. However, after the sharp decline on the 19th, technical indicators may undergo certain adjustments, and attention should be paid to whether it stabilizes around key support levels such as $90,000 and forms effective support.
From a market sentiment perspective
Recently, Bitcoin prices have been highly volatile, causing investor sentiment to fluctuate accordingly. After a rapid rise, there is a certain profit-taking sentiment in the market, and the sharp decline on the 19th triggered panic selling among some investors. However, in the long run, market sentiment always goes through cyclical fluctuations, and the current negative sentiment may gradually repair as the market adjusts.
From a macroeconomic and policy perspective
The Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate declines and has reduced expectations for rate cuts in 2025, which puts some pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. However, U.S. President-elect Trump has promised to lift regulatory restrictions on cryptocurrencies and supports the proposal to establish a national Bitcoin reserve, which brings certain positive expectations to the Bitcoin market.
From a capital flow perspective
Bitcoin has attracted a large influx of institutional funds in 2024, with companies like MicroStrategy aggressively purchasing Bitcoin. If institutional funds continue to flow in, it will provide support for Bitcoin prices. However, attention should also be paid to the movements of institutional funds during market adjustments; if there is a large-scale outflow of funds, it may lead to further declines in Bitcoin prices.
Overall, Bitcoin has certain bullish signals technically next month, but the effectiveness of key support levels needs to be monitored; market sentiment may gradually repair, but short-term volatility is still hard to avoid; on the macroeconomic and policy fronts, there are both pressures and certain positive factors; and there is also uncertainty in capital flow. Therefore, investors should closely monitor the dynamic changes in the aforementioned aspects and make investment decisions cautiously.
