ChainCatcher message, according to Jin Shi reports, the annual changes in the composition of the Federal Reserve FOMC voting committee next year may slightly increase resistance to further rate cuts. Compared to the outgoing voting members, the incoming voting members are more hawkish. TD Securities analyst Oscar Munoz stated, 'This opens the door for more opposing votes next year.'
At the December FOMC meeting, 4 of the 19 decision-makers at the Federal Reserve wrote forecasts stating that this rate cut was inappropriate, with Cleveland Fed President Harker casting an opposing vote. Harker will exit the FOMC next year and be replaced by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who believes that the policy rate needs to be significantly lowered next year and is clearly more dovish than Harker. However, the other two new voting members—St. Louis Fed President Musalem and Kansas City Fed President Schmidt—will make the 2025 voting committee's stance tougher, replacing the centrist Atlanta Fed President Bostic and San Francisco Fed President Daly.
TD Securities analysts speculate that Musalem is one of the four policymakers who submitted forecasts opposing this rate cut, with another possibly being Schmidt, both of whom have suggested some hesitation towards further rate cuts. The fourth could be Federal Reserve Governor Bowman, who opposed a 50 basis point rate cut in September but might shift to support this week's cut during the two-day meeting.