Sigh, something still happened. Can the crypto market rise again? Let’s take a look:
A single statement from Powell caused the Nasdaq to flash crash by 3.61%, nearing the largest drop in recent years. Moreover, Powell's hawkish statements didn't stop there! He explicitly criticized the crypto space, stating that the Federal Reserve cannot hold Bitcoin, leading to a 5% drop in Bitcoin. It's just terrible.
This is hard selling; no one can predict what he said. It's truly a disaster, not only for retail investors but even Wall Street can only stand and take hits. The main reason for this crash is that Powell stated that there won't be many rate cuts next year, possibly only two rate cuts, leading various assets to decline.
However, the crypto market is still doing fine; Bitcoin's drop is similar to that of the Nasdaq, without too much extra decline. Powell's statement that the Fed does not hold Bitcoin has no impact on Trump’s Bitcoin strategic reserve because strategic reserves are held by the government, not the Fed. So on January 20, when Trump takes office, BTC still has a good chance of becoming a national reserve.
In fact, despite Bitcoin's sharp decline, look at the ETF; there's still a significant net inflow of funds. What does this indicate? It suggests that Wall Street sees this drop as an entry opportunity, not an exit. There may be some secondary retests during this period; don’t be afraid—these are all chances to get on board. Once the adjustments are over, the crypto market will restart and shine together with everyone!
The biggest opportunity during this crash should be Doge, and I will enter here!
Doge has retraced from 0.48 to 0.34, a 30% correction, and the coin price has already consolidated sufficiently. The 0.33-0.35 zone is also the 0.618 golden ratio support for Doge's retracement. I think this is an opportunity because a month from now, Musk will take over the White House, and Doge has an 80% chance of flying up.
I need to call out Powell; this old guy is really full of himself. He said he doesn't support Bitcoin, triggering a massive shock that forced us to stop-loss on our Ethereum long positions. It's been a long time since I've tasted the bitterness of a stop-loss. Thank you very much!
Next, there are not many liquid opportunities left for Christmas and New Year's, so patiently wait for the bottom-fishing opportunity!
As for what to bottom-fish, it's still best to look for previously strong narratives that have not yet materialized. I am optimistic about the market after Trump takes office from January to March next year. For stability, focus on ETH, BNB, SOL, and these coins.
Those who want to take a risk can choose ACT, PNUT, etc.
In terms of seeking stability, memes in this area can choose: DOGE, PEPE, WIF, FLOKI, etc.
For public chains, choose some well-established ones with good popularity, such as APT, SOL, SUI.
For the AI sector, choose FET, including WLD is fine, but I am more optimistic about FET, especially since it has a partnership with DWF as a market maker, making it hard for the price to look too bad.
In the Defi sector, the primary considerations are still Aave and Compound. We have these at zero cost. Friends who want to re-enter the market will have to wait for lower levels. Additionally, MKR itself isn't an issue; it's just been influenced by Ethereum. If you haven't set stop-losses, you can hold normally, just control your position and avoid contracts.
As for positions, it still depends on everyone’s habits. Of course, even Mr. Crab suggests that everyone arrange it reasonably. If the allocation is insufficient, you might as well pick a portion from the above sectors to layout. As long as the fundamentals and projects are still operational, time will provide you with answers and some wealth.
Additionally, although the drop was significant in the early hours, the performance data of the ETH ETF still gives us confidence to foresee craziness in the market ahead. Under such negative news from a reputable source, the outflow of data is somewhat expected. However, BlackRock alone saw an inflow of 80.7 million, single-handedly supporting the entire ETH ETF net inflow; while others were cutting losses, BlackRock was bottom-fishing.
So moving forward, whether ETH breaks its historical high or surpasses 5,000 or 8,000, it’s only a matter of time. It follows the same plot as BTC; BlackRock's CEO personally comes down to keep pumping, which must be part of their long-term plan. This is absolute power, and we need to have confidence.
For ETH to rise, it still needs to break through the previous trend line at 3850. This position must effectively stabilize and increase in volume to see a higher Ethereum! Additionally, in January, there will be FTX compensation, with this year’s compensation of 16 billion U or fiat currency, which will somewhat flow back into the crypto market, combined with the resumption of ETF operations, the market conditions ahead are still worth looking forward to. Now is not the time to exit.
As mentioned before, every major drop is a good opportunity to enter, and today is no exception. We are in a bull market cycle, but this year's market characteristic is that it’s fast, precise, and brutal—pump quickly and dump just as fast. Without innovation or new narratives driving the market, it's hard for the trend to sustain. Everyone needs to adapt to this rhythm.
After last night's crash, we can clearly see what value coins are, quality altcoins, and junk coins. The following is the classification:
BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB—the four kings didn't drop much. (Value coins)
BGB (dark horse coin + value coin) not only didn't drop but also surged! Equivalent to BNB from the last bull market.
There are still a few coins that didn't drop much, such as: OM, ENA, ONDO, RAY, USUAL, HBAR, SUI, AAVE, XRP (quality altcoins). Some AIAgent tokens are rising against the trend, among them, Fartcoin rose by 48%, market cap surpassing 1 billion. ARC rose by 23%, market cap exceeding 220 million; ELIZA rose by 19%, market cap around 88.5 million. AIXBT rose by 18%, market cap 275 million. In addition, coins like vvaifu, degenai, AICell, ai16z, Bully, etc., have all risen more than 10%. (Good narrative)
99% of altcoins have plummeted, falling apart! (Junk coins)
Among the new coins, it seems that Usual and Move are performing well, and $Usual is currently the top gainer on Binance today, reaching an all-time high. Lower interest rates are beneficial for government bond yields, while rate cuts favor arbitrage returns. Stablecoins win big ----- it always feels like I've bought too little during a stablecoin bull market.
Why do I say that $Usual is a simple money-making model? Look at how $Ondo has increased about ten times in the past nine months; it's suitable for large capital to invest safely. In the future, $Usual will present a similar feeling to Luna, playing the Ponzi scheme in the bull market.
Currently, from $Usual, I see another opportunity. Holding this capital for more than half a year can easily multiply by five times, especially with BlackRock's Ethena, indirectly giving us a major boost. The market cap is still very low, around one-tenth of $ENA, and it hasn't been listed on Korean exchanges yet, while the big U.S. exchanges will likely list it sooner or later.
The Alpha pool list is back.
Compared to yesterday, I am more willing to believe that today's selections are the targets chosen by the BN listing team, and the quality is obviously much better. I hit six (of course, two of them are still deeply trapped 😂😂😂), but some were still unexpected, like Mars City; I thought it was already dead (is it dead?).
If we do not consider the short-term price fluctuations, this Alpha list can indeed provide retail investors with a screening mechanism. Rather than allowing retail investors to blindly pan for gold in a pile of dung, it’s better to provide a filtered list first, and then consider suitable timing for secondary speculation (of course, there are still rocks mixed in with the gold, requiring further screening).
There was a lot of negativity on social media about this pool yesterday. To be honest, there were quite a few problems with the first selection and the product's preparation, as well as how players could participate. I wasn't too satisfied, and the community was complaining privately. However, considering that this product was launched only recently, we should wait and observe more before concluding its success or failure.
For instance, what types of targets are we looking for, what market cap range, and whether there's any project that has been listed on Binance that can be called Alpha? And whether the market recognizes the selected targets? Gradually, I believe the product team will sort out some paths that everyone will find satisfactory.
Moreover, figuring out how to utilize this screening mechanism to find the most suitable strategies is something everyone needs to consider. Yesterday, I specifically reminded the community to ambush and sell news rather than chase the highs. Today’s strategy seems to have succeeded (yes, I made another wave). After the listing news is released, leaving the spotlight is the next opportunity to buy again.
Different angles lead to different analysis methods, but the essence remains the same; in a bull market, you must find the most Ponzi-like projects and invest heavily.
Don't spend a day looking for 50 passwords; that will only make you too afraid to invest much in each. Focus your energy on a few potential projects, invest over 80% of your efforts into them, learn, and understand, so that you are aware. You won't easily be swayed by others' hype or scared away by their FUD.
Which serious wealth-building venture hasn’t made a fortune by heavily investing in a coin's rise? In the last cycle, LUNA made billions by holding from the beginning, while in this cycle, small Doge has harvested over 10M with laser cats, and those who got into Hyper, these are all people I know.
Meme is not my main version; I really like projects like Pendle, ENA, and Usual that require looking at mechanisms. Because not many people are willing to invest time and effort to understand and research, they prefer to follow the crowd.
For example, some people started to doubt that the 22,000% APY of Usualx was a scam yesterday, so many did not dare to invest.
In fact, this is a misunderstanding of the relationship between APR and APY (which old OGs in Defi understand). APY is compound interest; a 22,000% APY actually corresponds to about 500+% APR. For the Usualx that only had 1M last night, this isn't exaggerated. I immediately bought $Usual on-chain and calculated just now that in less than 20 hours, the yield is 3.5%. Isn't that nice?
(Of course, since the opening of the staking, 33M of Usual has already rushed in, and the yield has dropped to 20,000%. The rest is just a gamble, and we’ll calculate once today’s participants have settled down.)
To be honest, I underestimated $Usual at first and missed the opportunity to invest at the first level, but fortunately realized in time to go all in. As subsequent mechanisms are revealed, it’s looking more and more interesting.
Just as he said, if the team is truly formidable, and they keep pulling the price of $Usual with the profits and funds they hold, then the paper yield of TVL will keep increasing, leading to more and more funds being thrown in, thus increasing the team's TVL yield and continuing to pump. Wouldn't that be akin to Luna, stepping up with one foot while stepping down with the other, having the chance to become the next legendary project?
Of course, this is all just our own wild guess. At least for now, the market is quite supportive of $Usual, and the price isn't dropping.
I won’t directly give advice on secondary coin prices because there are risks and it's easy to get criticized, although I haven't sold any yet. But currently, stablecoins used for mining are indeed attractive. Look at the chart below; the risk of stablecoin LP yield is already close to 60%.
There will be many pullbacks in the middle of a bull market; we just need to withstand this wave of pullbacks and wait for good market conditions to arrive. The bull market is not over yet; you can still buy a little on small dips and buy a lot on big dips!
1. PNUT:
The squirrel had already hinted that first, the rise was below expectations, and second, the vehicle was too heavy, needing a pullback. It has now fallen below 1 dollar, and the 0.5-0.7 range can be used for some gradual accumulation.
2. JTO:
You can gradually accumulate just below 3.3. This coin adjusts quickly, so the rebound will also be fast.
3. RSR:
Currently, it's undergoing a second retest, having dropped below 0.012. Below 0.012, you can find locations for some gradual accumulation. This RSR adjustment is quite violent, and after the adjustment ends, a good upward trend is expected.
4. DOGE:
As long as it can maintain oscillation above 0.33, there shouldn’t be any major issues. However, if it falls below 0.33, we might see 0.27 for Doge, which will present an excellent opportunity to add positions again. Overall, I am optimistic about Doge; just buy low and hold on!
