recently touched a new all-time high of $108,274, signaling the strength of the ongoing bull cycle. However, the market has experienced a pullback to around $99,047. Lets analyze the current market structure, technical indicators, and possible short- and long-term scenarios.
## The Pullback in Perspective
Corrections, even in bull cycles, are a healthy aspect of market behavior. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced pullbacks of 10-20% before resuming its uptrend. The recent drop from $108,000 to $99,000 represents a ~7.4% decline, a relatively mild correction compared to past cycles.
## Revised Market Structure
The market structure remains bullish overall, but there are key levels to watch:
### Support Levels:
$98,000 - $100,000 is a critical demand zone where buyers are likely to step in.(already in)
### Resistance Levels:
$108,000 (recent ATH) and $112,000 are key levels to breach for the next leg up.
### Volume Trends:
Increased sell volume during this pullback, and low buy volume in next candles could be a sign of price may drops further.
## Updated Technical Indicators
### 1. MACD
The daily MACD shows bearish momentum, signaling short-term caution.
On the weekly chart, MACD remains strongly bullish, aligning with a continuation of the uptrend.
### 2. RSI
Daily RSI is nearing the middle zone (~50-55), indicating indecision.
In a downtrend, it could indicate a pause or relief before further decline
Weekly RSI remains above 70, signaling strength but also caution as it approaches overbought territory.
### 3. Elliott Wave Analysis
Bitcoin appears to be in a corrective phase of a larger bullish Elliott Wave cycle. If this is a Wave 4 pullback, the next move could be a Wave 5 surge targeting $120,000 or higher.
## Short-Term Predictions
In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to consolidate between $98,000 and $105,000. A breakout above $105,000 could trigger a retest of the $108,000 ATH, while losing $98,000 may lead to further downside toward $95,000.
## Long-Term Predictions
The long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish:
If Bitcoin holds above $98,000, the next major rally could take prices toward $120,000-$130,000.
Breaking below $95,000 might lead to a deeper correction but would likely attract institutional buyers.
## Impact of a 0.25% Fed Rate Cut
Recent trends suggest positive correlation between Bitcoin price and easing monetary policies, as it drives demand for inflation hedges like BTC.Rate cuts generally lower borrowing costs, spurring economic activity and investor confidence. This often results in inflows to risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
But its not certain, it may act contrarily, as previously it had done sometimes.
Fear and Greed Index at 69 CMC: Current market sentiment can highlight whether traders are leaning toward risk-taking (greed) or risk-aversion (fear).
## Conclusion
Bitcoin’s pullback from $108,000 to $99,000 is a natural part of its bull cycle. For traders and investors, this presents an opportunity to accumulate before the next leg higher. Monitoring key technical indicators and support levels is essential for navigating the volatility.
#DYOR #NFA