Market Sentiment and Overly High Expectations
Former BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes, has warned that Bitcoin may face a "devastating sell-off" when Donald Trump takes office. In a lengthy article on Substack, Hayes noted that investors are placing unrealistic expectations on the ambitious commitments of #TRUMP , such as turning the U.S. into the "crypto capital of the world" and establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR).
Hayes argues that the Trump administration will not have enough time to implement major policies in the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections, when the Republican Party may lose power due to voter impatience.
"The Market Is Setting Itself Up for Regret"
Hayes predicts that the realization that Trump is unlikely to fulfill his commitments will lead to a significant sell-off in the market. In particular, he expresses skepticism about the U.S. government's ability to turn 200,000 $BTC seized assets into a national asset reserve.
However, he also points out that even if this reserve is not established, the mere threat of it has already created significant buying pressure on the market.
New Drivers for the Crypto Market
Hayes believes that another important factor driving market growth is that investors from mainland China may gain access to Bitcoin ETFs through Hong Kong. Additionally, he notes that EU governments will "secretly buy crypto" while the public endures state-backed inflation.
The Bitcoin Path to 1 Million USD
Despite warning of significant corrections, Hayes still believes that the future of Bitcoin is very bright and has the potential to reach 1 million USD. He asserts that the best strategy is to hold Bitcoin and buy when prices drop: "I will buy when prices drop and also when they rise. Yahtzee!!!"
Long-Term Success Based on Macroeconomic Trends
Hayes acknowledges that his accuracy rate for predictions was only 25% over the past year, but emphasizes that he still maintains profits by focusing on long-term trends.
Conclusion
Arthur Hayes, with his bold predictions and long-term perspective, continues to emphasize the importance of staying committed to Bitcoin and crypto, despite short-term volatility. The upcoming market may experience major corrections, but this is also an opportunity for investors who know how to seize it.