Last night I stayed up until dawn watching the Fed and Powell's speeches, so today's post is a bit late. After all, last night the risk assets were experiencing tumultuous and grand fluctuations—not BTC. No, I’m not talking about BTC; compared to the dramatic declines in US stocks, gold, foreign exchange, and other risk assets last night, BTC remained relatively calm. Although the decline was not small, it was moderate compared to past trends. In fact, my main profession isn't cryptocurrency. I've only been in the crypto space for a year or two. My legitimate main profession is as a professional trader for stock indices, commodities, and foreign exchange, so if I have misjudged BTC, please don’t be too harsh on me. After all, I’m just a novice compared to those who have been in the crypto space for over a decade. However, hey, so far, I haven’t missed anything.

In fact, anyone who seriously read my midday post yesterday must be feeling quite happy today, at least not bad. To summarize the key points of yesterday's post: 1. You could go long a bit near 104,200 or 103,500, cautiously observing. It fell as low as around 103,000. 2. You must take profits in a timely manner, especially before the Fed announces its interest rate decision and Powell speaks. Although yesterday's entry point wasn’t the lowest, the highest rebound only reached around 105,300, there were plenty of opportunities and time for those who went long to take profits. 3. Look for high points to short before Powell's speech. I’m too lazy to flip through yesterday's post; look at the screenshot below, I've circled the key points. Personally, I took profits on my long position during the day yesterday because BTC was indeed weak, not even standing above 106,000, so I didn’t find a suitable shorting point. At 3 AM, as BTC made a small push upward, I casually shorted some ETH (because ETH was weaker than BTC). At that time, I didn’t have the luxury to look at BTC too closely; other markets were in chaos. Otherwise, I would have gone heavier with my shorts. I closed my short position in the morning, and for now, I’ll just observe. Honestly, doesn’t the content of the posts just brim with valuable insights?! Even if you didn’t short last night, you wouldn’t have ended up stuck with a long position. — Still not paying attention?

To be honest, considering the impact of last night's news, BTC's performance can be considered strong. However, it did indeed curb BTC's upward trend and high-level fluctuations. Although it has now returned above 100,000, the momentum has weakened, and the rebound is relatively feeble and entangled. The current basic view is: short-term bearish, maintaining a 'weak' fluctuation trend at a high level. This weakness will manifest in the lower half of the fluctuation range of 100,000 to 110,000. For those looking to operate in the short term, consider short positions at BTC's important resistance levels, entering and exiting quickly without looking too far. The upper resistance is around 102,200 and 103,200, aiming for the vicinity of 100,000. If it breaks 103,200, does that mean a trend reversal? Not necessarily; it might just indicate a stronger rebound. It’s prudent to observe for now.

It's hard to draw a definite conclusion about BTC right now. Last night, the Nasdaq had a panic sell-off, distorting the market a bit. Tonight, there might be a recovery, and we need time to judge whether the Nasdaq will continue to decline or fluctuate a few days before falling again. Some might wonder what this has to do with BTC. Haha, did you think BTC fell last night because of Powell's speech? You’re overthinking it; it was dragged down by the Nasdaq's crash. You might think BTC is unrelated to the dollar index, and indeed, it seems less correlated at times, but always remember BTC is priced in dollars. While it might not seem related in normal times, at critical points, it can cause reversals. All risk assets priced in dollars, and even those not priced in dollars, have significant correlations with the dollar. In my first post on the forum on December 9, titled: 'Recent Medium-Short Term Investment Opportunities for Bitcoin, Dollar Index, Crude Oil, and US Stocks from a Macro Perspective', didn’t the views I presented mostly get confirmed? 1. BTC fluctuated in the range of 94,000 to 103,000, with high sell and low buy strategies, which has been confirmed. 2. The dollar index welcomed a medium-term buying opportunity near 105.5, with the recent target being the previous high of 108.09. Last night, the dollar index surged to 108.27, confirming this; 3. Crude oil presented a buying opportunity for a medium- to long-term trend, which is currently still in the buying phase and unverified; 4. The three major US stock indices reached their final stage, suggesting shorting the S&P and DAX. This Monday's post also mentioned that the Nasdaq had peaked, with one last surge tonight, and the Nasdaq topped out on Monday night, which has been verified. 5. The downtrend in gold is not over, and we should look for high points to short. This has been verified.

Is there a more accurate investment prediction than this?? There should be, but definitely not many. The title of the post mentions 'certain' investment opportunities; is that not certain enough?! Each trading opportunity generally comes with babysitter-level entry and target points. I ask, who else? If anyone is interested in the trends of these commodities and stock indices, I will occasionally make predictions at key market points and when significant trading opportunities arise. If not interested, I won't bother to write; it takes time. But I will try my best to continuously analyze and post about BTC; if you don’t follow, you might miss the next critical prediction opportunity. Not only should you follow, but also check back occasionally for the latest posts.

On a side note, I have been saying all year that the Fed's rate cuts are limited in number and scope, and that they might even pause rate cuts, predicting that the dollar will make a strong comeback. I kept reminding people to go long on the dollar, but not many believed me. Last night, Powell hinted that the Fed might pause rate cuts, and everyone suddenly woke up and finally believed that the dollar would begin to rise strongly. Haha, still too young, I predict that the dollar will fluctuate at a high level for a while before undergoing a correction, and it might even return to around 105. Of course, after the correction, I still see the dollar index as bullish; the overall upward trend hasn't peaked yet. The key point I want to make is that in the investment market, one must have contrarian thinking. The market always speculates on expectations; once expectations are fulfilled, the market reverses. This applies to any investment market and any investment variety. I’ll leave you with a little question: January 20 next year, when Trump takes office, will that be considered a fulfillment of expectations for BTC?

Below are screenshots of yesterday's post and my first post on the forum. Sigh, just in case someone accuses me of being a backseat driver.