Author: Ledn CEO Mauricio Di Bartolomeo, CoinDesk; Translation: Bai Shui, Golden Finance
When Michael Saylor announced in August 2020 that MicroStrategy would convert $250 million of its treasury reserves into Bitcoin, Wall Street analysts viewed it as a reckless gamble. Saylor claimed at the time that Bitcoin was 'superior to cash,' which raised skepticism in traditional banking circles.
However, today, those who mocked banks adopting Bitcoin are now rushing to participate in Bitcoin mortgages, as they compete to leverage Bitcoin's superior characteristics as institutional-grade collateral and its thriving product-market fit.
Traditional collateral (such as real estate) requires manual evaluation, subjective assessment, and a complex legal framework (varying by jurisdiction). In contrast, Bitcoin offers instant verification of collateral support through public blockchain data, 24/7 real-time settlement and clearing capabilities, uniform quality regardless of geography or counterparties, and the ability to programmatically execute loan terms.
When lenders realize they can instantly verify and potentially clear Bitcoin collateral at 3 a.m. on a Sunday—while real estate waits for manual assessments, subjective valuations, and potential evictions—there will be no turning back.
1. Traditional banking succumbs to Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy's (MSTR) approach fundamentally changes how public companies view Bitcoin as a financial asset. The company does not simply hold Bitcoin; it has pioneered a financial model that uses public markets to expand its cryptocurrency position—issuing convertible notes and publicly offering stock to fund Bitcoin purchases. This strategy allows MicroStrategy to leverage the same financial engineering that has empowered traditional banks, but with Bitcoin as the underlying asset rather than traditional financial instruments and real estate, resulting in MicroStrategy outperforming spot Bitcoin ETFs significantly.
Therefore, one of my predictions for 2025 is that MSTR will announce a 10-for-1 stock split to further expand its market share, as this will allow more investors to purchase shares and options contracts. MicroStrategy's actions demonstrate how deeply Bitcoin has penetrated traditional corporate financing.
I also believe that as long-term holders and new investors seek to derive more returns from their positions, financial services built around Bitcoin will become highly popular. We expect rapid growth in Bitcoin mortgage and revenue-generating products for global Bitcoin holders.
Moreover, there is an almost poetic answer to why Bitcoin-backed loans have become so popular—they are a true representation of financial inclusivity, with business owners in Medellín facing the same collateral requirements and interest rates as those in Madrid. Everyone's Bitcoin has the same attributes, verification standards, and clearing processes. This standardization eliminates the arbitrary risk premiums historically imposed on borrowers from emerging markets.
For decades, traditional banks have marketed 'global influence' while maintaining vastly different lending standards across regions. Now, Bitcoin-backed loans expose the inherent inefficiencies of this legacy: the relics of an outdated financial system.
2. As capital flows freely, borders disappear.
Countries are entering a new era of Bitcoin business and capital competition. Therefore, we expect to see new tax incentives specifically aimed at Bitcoin investors and businesses by 2025. These incentives will be implemented alongside rapid visa programs for cryptocurrency entrepreneurs and regulatory frameworks aimed at attracting Bitcoin companies.
Historically, countries have competed for manufacturing bases or regional headquarters. They are now competing for Bitcoin mining operations, trading venues, and custodial infrastructure.
El Salvador's Bitcoin treasury status represents an early experiment in national Bitcoin reserves. While experimental, their actions and the recent proposal for a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve compel traditional financial centers to confront Bitcoin's role in sovereign finance.
Other countries will study and attempt to replicate these frameworks, preparing their own initiatives to attract capital flows denominated in Bitcoin.
3. Opening the door for banking participants.
In the debt market, necessity drives innovation. Public companies now often use the bond market and convertible notes to fund Bitcoin-related transactions. This practice has transformed Bitcoin from a speculative asset into a cornerstone of corporate financial management.
Companies like Marathon Digital Holdings and Semler Scientific have successfully followed MicroStrategy's lead and reaped market rewards. This is the most important signal for financial managers and CEOs. Bitcoin is now on their radar.
At the same time, the Bitcoin lending market has made significant strides over the past two years. Serious institutional lenders now require proper collateral segregation, transparent custodial arrangements, and conservative loan-to-value ratios. This standardization of risk management practices is precisely what attracts previously reserved institutional capital.
Regulation is becoming clearer. The door should be opened for more banks to participate in Bitcoin financial products—this will benefit consumers the most, as new capital and competition will lower interest rates and make Bitcoin-backed loans more attractive.
4. Intensification of mergers and acquisitions in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
With the regulatory clarification surrounding the SAB 121 resolution involving cryptocurrency custody and other guidance, banks will face a critical choice: to establish or acquire pathways into the growing Bitcoin and lending markets. Therefore, we predict that at least one of the top 20 banks in the U.S. will acquire a cryptocurrency business next year.
Banks want to act quickly, as the development timeline for cryptocurrency infrastructure exceeds the competitive window, while established firms are processing billions in transactions monthly through proven systems.
These operating platforms represent years of specialized development that banks cannot quickly replicate. The acquisition premium has diminished relative to the opportunity cost of delayed market entry.
The combination of operational maturity, regulatory clarity, and strategic necessity has created natural conditions for the banking industry to acquire cryptocurrency capabilities.
5. Public market validates Bitcoin infrastructure.
The cryptocurrency industry is poised for a breakthrough year in the public market. We anticipate at least one highly anticipated cryptocurrency IPO in the U.S. with a valuation exceeding $10 billion. Major digital asset companies have established complex institutional service layers, with revenue streams now comparable to traditional banks, handling billions in daily transactions, managing vast custodial businesses under strict compliance frameworks, and generating stable fee income from regulated activities.
Therefore, the next chapter of finance will not be written by those resisting this transformation but by those who recognize that their survival depends on embracing change.
