As the year comes to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) has reached new heights, driving bullish forecasts for the continuation of the current cycle. Reports from Bitfinex provide insights into when BTC might peak and quantify the remaining growth potential for this leading cryptocurrency.
Bitfinex's latest Alpha report emphasizes the remarkable development of the cryptocurrency sector this year. This phase is unique due to the widespread adoption and mainstream acceptance that Bitcoin has undergone. A significant development in this cycle is the emergence and growing interest of institutions in spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The emergence of these financial products has exceeded expectations, opening up a 'new class of investors' into the cryptocurrency space. The report notes the uniqueness of this cycle as these new investors, attracted by the growing ETF market, have pushed BTC prices to new all-time highs (ATH) ahead of the anticipated Halving event. Historically, Bitcoin has surged to new record highs within 5-7 months after halving.
Additionally, several national governments have shown an increasing interest in diversifying their reserves with cryptocurrency. This interest has prompted considerations for adopting Strategic Bitcoin Reserves following Bitcoin's recent impressive performance. According to Bitfinex experts, these developments have led to lighter price adjustments for BTC compared to previous cycles. It is anticipated that this trend will continue, due to ongoing buying pressure from institutional investors and ETFs, thus limiting the scale and duration of future market corrections.
Recently, rising expectations for a U.S. administration friendly to cryptocurrency have further boosted positive sentiment related to this industry, driving strong market growth post-election. Consequently, the cryptocurrency market has increased by 130% year-to-date (YTD), reaching a market capitalization of $3.69 trillion, marking an impressive 70% growth this quarter.
Bitfinex's analysis highlights Bitcoin's impressive trajectory. From a low of $15,487 in 2022, BTC has surged by 573%. To date, this cryptocurrency has increased by 130%, thanks to significant industry advancements this year. Earlier this month, Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark, reaching a new ATH close to $110,000. Bitfinex predicts that Bitcoin still has several milestones ahead in 2025.
Historical trends indicate that Bitcoin prices peak in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, approximately 450 days after the halving event. Indicators such as Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), and the Bull-Bear market measure suggest that the market remains in a bullish phase while still being far from euphoric peak levels.
Bitfinex explains the historical accuracy of the Pi Cycle Top Indicator for predicting cycle peaks, often forecasting these peaks within a three-day range. Previous data indicates a potential Bitcoin peak around mid-2025 to early 2026.
If Bitcoin follows the trajectory of 2021, prices could rise by 40% to around $339,000, with the peak occurring around June or July 2025. However, the report also acknowledges the trend of diminishing returns over cycles. Thus, Bitcoin could rise by 15% to 20%, reaching levels from $160,000 to $200,000. In contrast, if Bitcoin mimics the 2017 cycle, the bull run could extend into January 2026, peaking at $229,000.
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