Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart believes that the three Bitcoin spot ETFs that are about to be reviewed by the SEC are unlikely to pass the test, but he is quite optimistic that the first Bitcoin spot ETF will be born on January 10.
SEC to review three Bitcoin spot ETFs
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart tweeted that the SEC is about to review three Bitcoin spot ETFs in mid-November:
11/17：Hashdex「Hashdex Bitcoin ETF 」
11/17：Franklin「Franklin Bitcoin ETF」
11/21：Global X「Global X Bitcoin Trust」
Okay, we're nearing in on deadline dates for 3 spot#BitcoinETF applications. I want to get ahead of it because there's a pretty good chance we'll see delay orders from the SEC. Delays WOULD NOT change anything about our views & 90% odds for 19b-4 approval by Jan 10, 2024 pic.twitter.com/LE7sOlHAHM
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 14, 2023
SEC will be postponed, 1/10 chance of passing is as high as 90%
James Seyffart believes that although it is likely to see the SEC delay the above three ETFs again, the delay does not affect his point of view. He emphasized that all issuers that submit 19b-4 application documents have the possibility of obtaining approval before January 10. Up to 90%.
He also raised the possibility that the SEC could deny all applications, or that the SEC just doesn't want to allow 12 issuers to be approved at the same time.
As for someone asking about the possibility of the above three ETFs being cleared this week, he replied:
There are so many variables that make predictions almost intuitive. In addition, the blockchain media pays too much attention to our tweets, so I will not give the actual probability. I will only say that the probability of passing the level this week is greater than zero, but less than 50%.
James Seyffart also believed that 11/17 was the first opportunity to clear the level:
(Bitcoin spot ETF update: 11/17 is the first opportunity, and the chance of approval before January next year is as high as 90%)
This article Three Bitcoin Spot ETFs Will Be Delayed, Analyst: Only 1/10 Has a 90% Chance of Passing First appeared on Chain News ABMedia.
