1. Overall Market Status

  • Price Trend:

    • Short-term BTC price range oscillates, the 1-hour candlestick chart shows the price fluctuating around 105,000-106,000, with resistance at 106,000-108,000.

    • Recent price peaked at108,353, followed by a significant pullback, entering a downward oscillation trend, reflecting a weakening of market bullish sentiment.

  • Market Sentiment:

    • Net capital outflow is evident, repeatedly showing that selling volume is greater than buying volume across different time frames (1 hour, 4 hours, 1 day).

    • Capital flow chart shows a cumulative net outflow of over -607.8 BTC in 24 hours, with bearish sentiment predominant.

    • Buy orders are weak, with the depth chart showing a dominant selling pressure on the right side, indicating strong short-term selling pressure.

2. Whale Movements and Large Capital Behavior

  • Large Order Trends:

    • Data showsLarge Order Buying Volumecontinues to be belowLarge Order Selling Volume. For example, the 4-hour data shows:

      • Large Order Buying: 2.94K BTC

      • Large Order Selling: 2.46K BTC

      • Net Outflow: -353.69 BTC

      • Whales actively reducing holdings

  • From the data perspective,whales are gradually reducing their holdings, and are continuously suppressing prices through large sell orders, leading to a lack of strength in short-term market rebounds.

  • Behavior Analysis:

    • Whales seem to be cashing out profits at high levels, gradually distributing their holdings.

    • Price fluctuations are amplified, while trading volume shows a gradual shrinking trend, indicating that whales are testing market support levels.

3. Data Layer Analysis


Capital Flow

  • 24-hour Capital Flow:

    • Overall capital flow is showing a net outflow state (over -600 BTC).

    • Specifically manifested as:

      • Small and medium orders have some buying support, but large orders are continuously selling.

      • Buying (BTC) ≈ 962.2 BTC, Selling (BTC) ≈ 1.06K BTC, Net Outflow **-93 BTC** (1 hour).

    Leverage Position Changes:

    • Leverage short positions are slightly higher, and the market's bullish and bearish force comparison shows that bullish capital is slightly dominant, but bearish sentiment still prevails.

    • The borrowing ratio of coins shows: increased demand for leveraged funds, but low capital utilization rate, further indicating insufficient market confidence.

4. Comprehensive Analysis of Technical Indicators


MACD Indicator

  • 1-hour and 4-hour charts:

    • MACD indicator shows a golden cross, bearish momentum is gradually weakening, but rebound momentum is insufficient, indicating the market is in a phase of oscillating rebound.

  • Daily Chart:

    • MACD death cross not repaired, reflecting that the medium-term trend remains bearish.

    • RSI Indicator

  • 1-hour and 4-hour charts:

    • RSI value 50-55, indicating that the market is temporarily in aneutral and slightly weak, with basic balance between bullish and bearish forces.

  • Daily Chart:

    • RSI is gradually declining, currently around 67, reflecting that the market has not yet entered an oversold state, but further downside risk exists.

  • KDJ Indicator

  • KDJ indicator shows a golden cross upward, but the rebound magnitude is weak, indicating that the market has a technical rebound in the short term, but it needs to be observed for sustainability.


Short-term Market Judgment (1 hour - 4 hours)

  • Price oscillates within the range of 105,000-106,000, with support at 104,500 and resistance at 106,000-108,000.

  • Capital continues to flow out, with heavy selling pressure, and short-term market sentiment remains bearish.

  • Technical rebounds may exist, but sustainability is weak, needing observationTrading Volumeto see if it can be effectively amplified.


Medium-term Market Judgment (Daily Chart)

  • Price has entered a downward oscillation phase after a high-level pullback. If it cannot effectively break through the resistance level of 108,000, it may continue to test the support area of 102,000-103,000.

  • Whales show clear signs of reducing holdings, and the market will continue to be affected by selling pressure.


Market Risk Point

1. Large orders continue to sell, and capital outflow shows no notable relief. If a significant drop breaks below support, a faster correction may occur.


2. Depth chart shows sell orders greater than buy orders, with bearish sentiment dominating, caution is needed for further market bottom testing.

Operational Suggestions

  1. Short-term Strategy:

    • Short-selling on rebound: If the price reaches the resistance area of 106,000-106,500, one can enter a short position with a small amount, targeting 104,500, with a stop loss set at 107,000.

    • Support for Long Position: If the price pulls back to the support level of 104,000, one can attempt a short-term long position, targeting 105,500.


    2. Medium-term Strategy:

    Mainly wait and observe, waiting for the market stabilization signal after the whales reduce their holdings, to position for low-level long positions.


    Risk Control:

    Strictly set stop losses to prevent further bottom-testing risks if the price breaks below 102,000.

Summary

From the comprehensive view of the market, whale movements, data, and technical indicators:

  • The market is short-term weak, with heavy selling pressure and continuous capital outflow.

  • Whales' large order reduction indicates that the short-term market may face further corrections.

  • Short-term presence ofTechnical Rebounddemand, but attention should be paid to the coordination of trading volume and capital flow.