Tonight marks the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate meeting—the final decision on rates for this year. As for next year’s monetary policy trajectory, whether it includes three or even five adjustments remains uncertain. For now, our focus lies on this significant moment.
Market Overview: Yesterday’s Movements
The market exhibited notable volatility yesterday. Following a climb to 1102, the US session witnessed a sharp correction. Why do I emphasize this pullback? The answer lies in the magnitude of the reversal. Yesterday’s trading range expanded by approximately 3200 points, rising from 1071 to 1102. However, the subsequent decline from 1102 down to 1073 essentially erased the entire gain. This signals that further downward pressure is likely. As I pointed out during last night’s discussion, the decline from midnight into the early hours confirmed this projection, with the price bottoming out at 1050.
Trading Strategy for Today
Given the market dynamics, today’s trading should revolve around specific key levels. Let me break it down for you:
1. Lower Range (1000–1003): This level represents a previously congested trading zone. If the price revisits this area, I will confidently consider opening positions. However, exercise caution—avoid over-leveraging your trades, even if this zone appears attractive.
2. Intermediate Levels (1012–1015 and 1034): These levels are potential entry points depending on how the market unfolds. However, if the price drops below 1034 too rapidly, it would indicate caution as the downward momentum may intensify.
3. Critical Resistance (1062): If positive sentiment emerges and the price rebounds but fails to surpass 1062, this could be an ideal point to initiate short positions, anticipating continued downward movement.
The Federal Reserve’s Decision: What to Watch
At 3 PM, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Here’s what you need to know:
Pre-Announcement Strategy: If the price approaches 1034 before the decision, consider a long position targeting a rebound. However, tight risk management is crucial as markets may quickly react to the announcement.
Post-Announcement Approach: Should the price drop below 1034 after the announcement, the next significant zones for entries would be between 1012–1015 or, ideally, 1000–1003. If the price stabilizes above these levels, it could signal an opportunity for a long trade.
The Powell Effect
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks will play a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment. A hawkish tone—suggesting a cautious or restrictive monetary stance—could weigh on markets, likely leading to a decline in Bitcoin prices. On the other hand, a dovish tone, indicating a lenient approach to monetary policy, could spark bullish momentum and drive prices higher.
For those trading on news-based strategies, it’s critical to interpret Powell’s statements accurately and time entries and exits carefully. Stay realistic with your targets and avoid overextending your risk.
This analysis represents my personal perspective. For live updates and in-depth discussion, join me tonight at 10 PM in the live stream. Let’s navigate the market together during this crucial period.