ETH has only 13% chance of hitting a new high! Confidence in the year-end market has cooled sharply

On December 18, according to Polymarket data, the predicted probability of "Ethereum will not hit a record high this year" has soared to 87%, while the probability of "Ethereum will hit ATH" has fallen back to only 13%. Market confidence has almost dissipated.

It is worth mentioning that driven by the short-term market optimism on December 7, the probability of "ETH hitting ATH" once reached 41%. However, with the weakening market and the increasing wait-and-see sentiment of funds, this figure was halved in just 11 days.

So far, the total amount of funds involved in this forecast has reached US$10.195 million, reflecting the strong attention of a large number of investors to Ethereum's performance at the end of the year.

This data reveals two key pieces of information: First, the market generally expects that Ethereum will find it difficult to break the existing ceiling in the short term; second, the sentiment switching speed is extremely fast, indicating that funds are more inclined to short-term gambling.

Whether you are bullish or bearish, this wave of market is reminding us: there may be only one event trigger point between bulls and bears. For those who want to bet on a year-end comeback, don't forget to think of a stop-loss strategy in advance. The market never believes in tears!

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