12.18 Perspective

Let's review the market in the past few days. It started from last weekend, right? This was quite an extraordinary weekend with significant volatility compared to the past. The market stabilized at the 100,000 mark, and it began from this weekend, experiencing ups and downs, going through a mini bull and bear phase. From 99,000, it rose to our target of around 108,000, which has indeed been achieved. The Ethereum target is firm; at that time, I said I wouldn't look for a pullback below 4,000. Currently, it peaked around 4,100 and has undergone a significant pullback, which is visible. At least a pullback has already occurred, and it’s uncertain if it will continue. The market indeed has shown signs of stabilization.

Returning to the charts, let's take a look at Bitcoin. Since last night, when it surged to around 108,000, the market began to pull back. There are clear pullback signals, as indicated by a large bearish candle that broke the middle Bollinger band, leading to a strong decline, with the bearish candles continuing to drop, and it has fallen about 4,000 points since then. This is a normal pullback and quite healthy. I previously mentioned that the better Bitcoin performs now, the greater the risks will be, and the pullbacks will be more severe. Given how sharply Bitcoin has risen recently, it's clear this is a forced rally. Enough said; seasoned investors understand. The market naturally fluctuates, but I personally think this month will still close positively without feeling a major drop; the current pullback is still normal.

Let's take it step by step. The short-term 1-hour candles have started to rebound, but the strength is still quite weak. After breaking the middle band, it rebounded near 103,500. If it drops below the 103,500 support, the price will likely move downward. The 1-hour technical indicators, KDJ values, are all neutral and oversold, indicating a rebound. The three lines are currently curving upward from a low position, and there is significant upward space. The short-term price trend is not obvious, currently positioned above the lower Bollinger band, with weak rebounds and considerable volatility. Since we are rebounding, we should first pay attention to how the price rebounds before making further judgments.

Focus on price breakout situations. If Bitcoin breaks through the 104,700-105,000 range, it indicates a successful halt to the decline, and the price will move upward. At that time, we will focus on the resistance at 106,000 for another breakout, which will allow Bitcoin to break through the 110,000 mark. If it breaks below the 103,000-103,600 range again, Bitcoin will continue to pull back, and we should then pay attention to the support levels below at 101,200-100,000.

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The trend is not obvious. After breaking through key price levels, consider entering the market cautiously. If the 1-hour closes above 104,700, we can look to go long.