In the early hours of Thursday this week, the Federal Reserve is likely to announce a further interest rate cut of 25 basis points (BP), ending its easing journey in 2024 with a "three-consecutive cut" attitude. The Federal Reserve's interest rate trend next year has recently become the most concerned topic for many market participants. Most Wall Street institutions currently believe that the Federal Reserve is likely to significantly slow down the pace of further easing next year and adopt a more gradual and cautious tone.

Fed officials have said this week’s rate cut likely marks the end of the first phase of rate cuts, during which officials set a relatively low bar for rate cuts as borrowing costs remained high and waited for months to ensure inflation was closer to their target and trending down.

Last week, economists polled by Reuters predicted the Fed would cut rates just three more times next year - by 25 basis points each time.

Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income, said, "Market interest rates are likely to remain near current levels. Although the Fed may continue to cut interest rates, it will certainly not be the pace of cutting interest rates at each meeting that was expected at some point in the past few quarters."

The reasons for this relatively hawkish outlook are not difficult to analyze. In the view of the Fed, if the US economy continues to grow steadily, the reason for continuing to cut interest rates will no longer be so strong. Trump's proposed trade, immigration, regulatory and tax policy reforms may also reshape the outlook for economic growth, employment and inflation in the coming years.

Judging from the inflation and employment indicators, the two criteria for judging whether to cut interest rates, US inflation rose slightly to 2.7% in November from 2.6% in October, higher than the target of 2%; the US non-farm employment increased by 227,000 in November, exceeding the expected 220,000, and the year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates of average hourly wages reached 4% and 0.4% respectively, both exceeding the expected 3.9% and 0.3%.

In other words, the Fed appears to have every reason to slow the pace of rate cuts, and even if it cuts by another quarter percentage point, it will still be above most estimates of the neutral rate, which is about 2.5% to 4%. The Fed's federal funds rate is currently around 4.6%.

However, it is interesting that in this market context, some interest rate traders do not seem to be completely convinced. Recent trading data in the options and futures markets show that they have been increasing their bets - believing that the Fed's final rate cut next year may be greater than the current market judgment.

In interest rate options, some traders have bet in the near term that the market's view is too hawkish and that the Fed will stick closer to its September dot plot projections - equivalent to four 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025, bringing the implied federal funds target rate to 3.375%.

Those traders may have considered how potential signs of labor market fragility could increase bets on further Fed easing. For example, U.S. Treasuries briefly rallied earlier this month on data showing an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate.

In options tied to the secured overnight funding rate, which is highly sensitive to Fed policy expectations, demand is currently concentrated in dovish bet structures targeting early 2026 and expiring early next year. These positions would benefit if the Fed's rate policy path ends up being more dovish than the market expects.

Meanwhile, traders are adding positions in federal funds futures. Open interest in the February expiration contract, which is priced closely to the Fed’s December and January policy statements, has risen to a record. Recent flows around that maturity have favored buying, suggesting new bets to benefit from the December rate cut and subsequent further Fed easing in January.

Morgan Stanley's buy recommendation on February federal funds rate contracts this month appears to have driven the bullish activity. The bank's strategists said investors should prepare for a rise in the market-implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next January. Currently, the market is pricing in a "pitiful" probability of about 10% for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates next month.

Regardless, if those "non-mainstream bets" who believe that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in January next year and are expected to cut interest rates four times throughout the year want to stand out, tomorrow morning will obviously be the most critical moment of life and death. #BTC再创新高