$ARB

OVERALL ASSESSMENT:

1. Technical Analysis:

- Price is on a short-term downtrend, currently trading at $0.979

- MA20 and MA50 are crossing downwards, confirming the downtrend

- RSI is in the 44-46 range, indicating that the downward momentum is slowing

- Trading volume has been increasing in recent sessions

2. Money Flow Analysis:

- Long/Short ratio: 22.49% Long vs 21.07% Short

- Significant inflow in the last 24 hours shows more positive trends

- The ratio of borrowed funds is increasing, indicating that leverage is being used more

SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT 4-24 HOURS:

Scenario 1 (Probability 55%):

- Price sideways in the range of $0.97-0.99

- Test support at $0.97 and may rebound slightly

- Confirmation signal: Volume increases when price hits support

Scenario 2 (Probability 45%):

- Price continues to drop, breaking below $0.97

- Target decrease to $0.95-0.96

- Confirmation signal: Strong break below $0.97 with high volume

TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS:

1. Entry point:

- Do not enter at this moment

- Wait for price to retest the $0.97 zone and observe the reaction

- Only open position when there are clear divergence signals with volume confirmation

2. Risk management:

- Stop loss: Below $0.965

- Take profit: $0.99-1.00

- Minimum R:R ratio 1:2

ASSESSMENT OF VOLATILITY +-5%:

- Probability of a 5% increase (up to $1.028): 30%

- Probability of a 5% decrease (down to $0.93): 35%

- Probability of sideways movement within a 3% range: 35%

Note: The market is in a period of high volatility, caution and strict capital and risk management are required.