$ARB
OVERALL ASSESSMENT:
1. Technical Analysis:
- Price is on a short-term downtrend, currently trading at $0.979
- MA20 and MA50 are crossing downwards, confirming the downtrend
- RSI is in the 44-46 range, indicating that the downward momentum is slowing
- Trading volume has been increasing in recent sessions
2. Money Flow Analysis:
- Long/Short ratio: 22.49% Long vs 21.07% Short
- Significant inflow in the last 24 hours shows more positive trends
- The ratio of borrowed funds is increasing, indicating that leverage is being used more
SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT 4-24 HOURS:
Scenario 1 (Probability 55%):
- Price sideways in the range of $0.97-0.99
- Test support at $0.97 and may rebound slightly
- Confirmation signal: Volume increases when price hits support
Scenario 2 (Probability 45%):
- Price continues to drop, breaking below $0.97
- Target decrease to $0.95-0.96
- Confirmation signal: Strong break below $0.97 with high volume
TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS:
1. Entry point:
- Do not enter at this moment
- Wait for price to retest the $0.97 zone and observe the reaction
- Only open position when there are clear divergence signals with volume confirmation
2. Risk management:
- Stop loss: Below $0.965
- Take profit: $0.99-1.00
- Minimum R:R ratio 1:2
ASSESSMENT OF VOLATILITY +-5%:
- Probability of a 5% increase (up to $1.028): 30%
- Probability of a 5% decrease (down to $0.93): 35%
- Probability of sideways movement within a 3% range: 35%
Note: The market is in a period of high volatility, caution and strict capital and risk management are required.