In quantum physics, the behavior of particles changes when they are observed. The financial market is similar. When we try to understand and exploit its patterns, this very act will cause the market to change.
Crypto is the clearest evidence of this phenomenon.
The "Beta" Cycles
Previously, the crypto market operated under a simple model: prices rose uniformly. You didn't have to care too much about which tokens you held, as long as you held them. But when a model becomes too clear, it will no longer be sustainable.
Currently, we are seeing this old model break down. Bitcoin rises and Ether weakens, and tokens that once surged are now even dropping more sharply. This is not a sign of an ending. It is the beginning of a new phase, where investors need to view the market more deeply.
From "Valuation is a Meme" to Fundamental Valuation
There was a time when just being an early participant in a project with catchy slogans like "Airbnb for GPUs" was enough. Actual value did not matter. But as more and more tokens emerge, we need a clearer way to evaluate them.
This phase marks a turning point for the crypto market. Metrics and fundamental criteria begin to emerge:
ETH: From "world computer" or "ultra money" to valuations based on transaction fees and MEV.
Solana: Multicoin Capital values ETH at over $340 billion compared to Solana.
VanEck: Estimates ETH could reach a value of $2.4 trillion in the next 5 years.
The interesting thing here is the large gap in estimates. Such differences rarely occur in traditional finance. But in crypto, they are not only common but also make the market more attractive.
Bold Research Notes and Predictions
As the market shifts from sentiment to fundamental valuation, bold predictions begin to emerge. VanEck predicts that the GEOD token could increase 50-fold by 2030. M31 Capital even expects SQD – a token from a blockchain data provider – to increase 250-fold.
This is particularly interesting because these studies have a quality comparable to investment bank reports, yet they are dedicated to VC-type projects and micro-cap tokens. Communities like BidClub, where investors share traditional analysis mixed with memecoins, illustrate this.
How Observation Changes the Market
This raises a bigger question: if we start valuing tokens based on criteria like P/E or transaction costs, will the market adjust to meet these standards?
Werner Heisenberg once said:
“What we observe is not nature itself, but nature exposed to our questioning.”
In crypto, how we ask questions – how we perceive and value – will change the way projects are built and operated.
Crypto is Becoming More Interesting
The market is entering a new era. Instead of chasing old models, investors are forced to use fundamental analysis to identify where the real opportunities lie.
This not only makes the market more sustainable but also more interesting. We will see truly valuable tokens emerge as founders and investors adjust their behaviors to new standards.
The future of crypto is not only determined by technology but also by how we perceive and evaluate it. And that can change everything.