The Bitcoin trend shows a pullback with each step, and the subsequent increase is a point of interest.

This week is a super central bank week, with a focus on the US and Japan interest rate decisions. The US will announce on Thursday at 3 AM, with a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, but the market has already priced this in, so it may not be considered a positive. Powell's speech and the outlook for January next year are key points, with an 80% chance that rates will remain unchanged in January being the key gamble. On the same day, Japan will adjust interest rates, with a high probability of no rate hike in December; if they do raise rates, it may not cause significant harm but would be seen as insulting. If Powell emphasizes not cutting rates due to the strength of the US economy, it could help alleviate concerns. After the market digests the expectation of no rate cuts, prices may rise easily. The current trend is good, but the market is volatile and requires flexible responses.

Reasons for Bitcoin's surge:

- Macroeconomic and market factors:

- Monetary easing and demand for safe-haven assets: Central bank quantitative easing leads to an increase in money supply and significant devaluation risks, prompting investors to use Bitcoin to hedge against inflation and devaluation, increasing demand.

- Institutional investors entering the market: The approval of spot ETFs attracts capital, with firms like BlackRock and Grayscale betting on it, enhancing its acceptance in traditional financial markets and boosting demand.

- Market expectations and speculative sentiment: Events like Bitcoin halving drive prices up, and investors anticipate early positioning, with a “fear of missing out” sentiment also promoting purchases.

- Technological and application development factors:

- Development of blockchain technology: The technology is being implemented, application scenarios are expanding, and new business models are emerging, enhancing Bitcoin's importance as a digital asset and a "general equivalent," sparking enthusiasm.

- Expansion of payment methods: Some platforms and institutions accept Bitcoin payments or provide related services, such as PayPal allowing merchants to choose it as a payment option, increasing opportunities for usage. #BTC $BTC