Source: Cryptoslate
Compiled by: Blockchain Knight
According to the latest issue of the 'Bitfinex Alpha' report, if BTC replicates the price trends of the 2017 bull market, it could peak at $290,000 in early 2026.
This forecast is based on historical price patterns, institutional adoption, and key technical indicators during bull market cycles.
Following the bear market low in November 2022, BTC rebounded strongly in 2023, with an increase of 155.5%.
This momentum continued into 2024, with BTC trading between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of the year, showing a year-to-date increase of 143%.
The current bull market cycle began in the latter half of 2023, driven by expectations for the BTC halving event in 2024, which has historically occurred before bull market years.
Additionally, the report attributes the strength of this round of the cycle to the buying pressure from institutions and the launch of the US spot BTC ETF, which provide stable demand and limit the scale and duration of market corrections.
In the 2017 cycle, BTC's maximum correction was 33.2%, while in the 2020 cycle, BTC's decline was 27.1%.
In the current cycle, the correction of BTC has been more controlled due to the increasing interest from institutions, further enhancing market stability.
The BTC cycle top indicator is an important tool for predicting BTC price peaks, having historically marked cycle highs very accurately.
This indicator tracks the ratio between the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and twice the 350-day moving average (350DMAx2).
In previous cycles, when the 111DMA crossed above the 350DMAx2, BTC typically reached a significant price peak.
The report emphasizes that if the cycle pattern of 2021 is repeated, this crossover could occur as early as June 29, 2025; if there is a prolonged cycle like in 2017, it may occur as late as January 28, 2026.
Based on historical performance, BTC's peaks during bull runs are significantly higher than its moving averages.
In 2017, the trading value of BTC was three times its peak moving average. However, as BTC matures, returns are also decreasing, indicating a more conservative price prediction.
According to Bitfinex's predictions, if BTC follows the trajectory of 2021, its price could exceed the moving average by 40%, reaching around $339,000.
However, considering the low return rates, BTC may exceed the moving average by 15% to 20%, peaking between $160,000 and $200,000 by mid-2025.
Meanwhile, if the likelihood of a repeat of the 2017 cycle is low, BTC could peak at around $290,000 in early 2026.
The report states that while historical indicators show that the most likely scenario is for BTC to peak between $160,000 and $290,000, the path to these heights will depend on market maturity, ETF adoption, and broader macroeconomic conditions.
